Two gates. One river.
No conversation. Pakistan and India, sixteen months after the four-day war.
This is the plain-text version of the deck. The interactive version needs JavaScript. Left gate and left accounts are Pakistan, right are India, following the map from west to east.
2 of 11. Twenty-six people were killed at Baisaran on 22 April 2025.
What is verified. Armed attackers killed 26 people at Baisaran meadow, near Pahalgam, in India-administered Kashmir: 25 Indian nationals and one Nepali. Who directed the attack is not established in open court. India declined a joint probe.
Pakistan says. There is no evidence linking Pakistan to the attack. Pakistan offered a neutral investigation and has also suggested the attack could have been staged.
India says. A Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba group and its front, The Resistance Front, planned and carried it out, according to a 1,597-page chargesheet filed by India's National Investigation Agency on 15 December 2025.
No twin across the line: only India has put a detailed case on paper. Pakistan has offered an inquiry instead.
3 of 11. Four days in May, one link at a time.
23 and 24 April 2025
What is verified. India announced measures on 23 April: the treaty in abeyance, Attari closed, SAARC visas cancelled, High Commission strength cut from 55 to 30. Pakistan answered on 24 April by closing its airspace and suspending trade.
Pakistan says. Pakistan holds all bilateral accords, including the Simla Agreement, in abeyance, closes its airspace to Indian aircraft and suspends trade.
India says. The measures answer an attack it links to Pakistan-based groups. The treaty stays in abeyance until Pakistan "credibly and irrevocably" ends its support for cross-border terrorism.
The mirror holds: one move, one answer, a day apart.
Night of 6 to 7 May 2025
What is verified. India struck nine sites in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir, calling it Operation Sindoor. Sources date the start 6 or 7 May because the strikes ran past midnight. Eight sites are plotted; the ninth has no verified coordinate.
Pakistan says. The strikes hit civilian sites, including mosques.
India says. The strikes hit terrorist infrastructure and killed more than 100 militants.
One-sided on the night: nine sites hit on one side, no matching strike yet.
7 to 10 May 2025
What is verified. Aircraft were lost. India's Chief of Defence Staff acknowledged losses on 31 May 2025 without giving a number. Anonymous US officials told Reuters that at least two Indian jets were downed. Pakistani losses are not independently confirmed.
Pakistan says. Pakistan says it downed five to six Indian jets, including three Rafale, and calls India's own tally implausible.
India says. India's air chief said in August 2025 that five Pakistani fighters and one large aircraft were downed.
Each side's tally of the other's losses is its own. No neutral count exists.
10 May 2025
What is verified. Each side says it hit the other's military sites on 10 May. Reports name different numbers of sites, so only commonly named ones are plotted. Stated casualties differ, and neither set is independently verified.
Pakistan says. Pakistan says it hit Indian sites, including Adampur, Pathankot, Udhampur and Srinagar, and states 40 civilians and 13 military killed on its side.
India says. India says it hit Pakistani air bases, including Nur Khan, Sargodha, Rafiqui, Bholari, Jacobabad and Skardu, and states 21 civilians and 8 military killed on its side.
Claimed deaths: 53 on the Pakistani side, 29 on the Indian side. Both are unverified.
10 May 2025, 17:00 IST
What is verified. A ceasefire began at 17:00 India time, 16:30 Pakistan time, after four days of fighting. Who brokered it is disputed: President Trump claimed credit, and India denies any mediation.
Pakistan says. Pakistan thanked President Trump and credits the United States and about 36 countries.
India says. India says its and Pakistan's military operations directors agreed it bilaterally, without mediation, and told Parliament so in July 2025.
The mirror closes in step: both leaves swing to the same angle at 17:00.
4 of 11. Seven disputes: who says what, and what is known.
Pahalgam attack
What is verified. India declined a joint probe, and the chargesheet's allegations are untested in open court. CFR also reports an online claim of responsibility by a group calling itself Kashmir Resistance.
Pakistan says. No evidence of a link to Pakistan; a neutral probe was offered.
India says. Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba and The Resistance Front planned it.
Strikes of 7 May
What is verified. The strikes happened. No neutral count of the dead exists, so both casualty accounts stay unverified.
Pakistan says. Civilian sites and mosques were hit.
India says. Terrorist infrastructure was hit; more than 100 militants killed.
Air war
What is verified. India's Chief of Defence Staff acknowledged losses without a number; anonymous US officials said at least two Indian jets fell. Pakistani losses are not independently confirmed.
Pakistan says. Five to six Indian jets were downed, including three Rafale.
India says. Five fighters and one large aircraft of Pakistan's were downed.
Ceasefire
What is verified. President Trump claims credit and India denies it. Carnegie authors describe US Secretary of State Rubio relaying messages between the two sides. Talks at a neutral site are not verified.
Pakistan says. Thanks President Trump; credits the United States and about 36 countries.
India says. Agreed bilaterally between military operations directors, with no mediation.
Treaty status
What is verified. The Court of Arbitration found unanimously that the treaty remains fully in force. India rejects the Court and says abeyance stands.
Pakistan says. The treaty cannot be suspended, and stopping its water would be an act of war.
India says. Abeyance is valid until Pakistan credibly and irrevocably ends support for terrorism.
Bombings in Pakistan
What is verified. The Islamic State group claimed the February 2026 bombing of a Shia mosque in Islamabad. No public evidence of an Indian role has been seen.
Pakistan says. Terrorism inside Pakistan is sponsored by India.
India says. Pakistan blames India for its own security problems.
Naval collision
What is verified. The ships collided on 15 September 2026. Both sides cite the 1991 advance-notice agreement. Neither has published a position, so where the ships were is unverified.
Pakistan says. It happened inside Pakistan's exclusive economic zone during exercise SEASPARK-26; the Indian ship manoeuvred aggressively.
India says. It happened in international waters; the Pakistani ship approached at speed.
5 of 11. Both sides closed doors, one after another.
23 April 2025
What is verified. India moved first. The Attari crossing, the High Commissions, visas and the Indus treaty were the first doors it closed or narrowed.
India's measures. Attari crossing closed. High Commission strength cut from 55 to 30. SAARC visas cancelled. Indus treaty held in abeyance.
India moved first; the twin waits.
24 April 2025
What is verified. Pakistan answered within a day. The left gate swings shut to match the right.
Pakistan's measures. All bilateral accords, including the Simla Agreement, held in abeyance. Airspace closed to Indian aircraft. Trade suspended. Wagah crossing closed.
India's measures. The measures of 23 April stand.
The twin answers within a day.
May 2025
What is verified. India then banned all imports from Pakistan, direct and indirect, and closed the Kartarpur corridor until further orders. The corridor agreement was extended to 2029 but nothing crosses.
India's measures. All direct and indirect imports from Pakistan banned. Kartarpur corridor closed until further orders.
No matching move for Pakistan in these sources: the mirror lags.
September 2025 to February 2026
What is verified. Cricket became a door too. India refused handshakes at the Asia Cup in September 2025 and at the T20 World Cup match in Colombo on 15 February 2026.
India's measures. Handshakes refused at the Asia Cup and at the T20 World Cup. India also declined the Asia Cup trophy from the head of Pakistan's cricket board.
Only one side's act is recorded.
Since 31 December 2025
What is verified. One handshake in Dhaka, between S. Jaishankar and Ayaz Sadiq on 31 December 2025, was followed by no talks. Pakistan's airspace ban was last reported extended to 24 September 2026.
Pakistan's measures. Pakistan's exports to India: $0.42 million, April 2024 to January 2025, as reported by India.
India's measures. India's exports to Pakistan: $447.65 million over the same months.
Official trade ran one way: $447.65 million against $0.42 million.
6 of 11. The treaty splits six rivers between two countries.
What is verified. The 1960 treaty gives Pakistan the western rivers, about 135 million acre-feet a year, and India the eastern rivers, about 33. India sits upstream on the western rivers and may irrigate 701,000 acres from them.
Pakistan says. The western rivers are Pakistan's lifeline, and the treaty's limits on Indian storage and diversion protect them. An attempt to divert its water would be an act of war.
India says. The treaty dates from 1960 and circumstances have changed: demography, clean-energy needs, dam technology, terrorism and climate. India has cited all of these publicly.
One mark is 3 million acre-feet: 45 marks on the Pakistan side, 11 on the India side. The mirror fails by about four to one.
7 of 11. The Hague says the treaty stands. India disagrees.
What abeyance changes
What is verified. The Permanent Indus Commission last met in May 2022. Pakistan says India stopped sharing routine flow data and site inspections in 2023. The treaty's machinery for sharing information has stalled.
Pakistan says. India has stopped sharing routine river-flow data and blocked site inspections since 2023.
India says. Abeyance remains in force until Pakistan "credibly and irrevocably" ends its support for cross-border terrorism.
One kind of flow stopped: data. The water kept moving.
What it does not change
What is verified. The rivers still run. India's built storage on the Chenab is about 1 million acre-feet, and its dams are run-of-river, so one Pakistani hydrologist sees no existential threat now. India is advancing more projects upstream.
Pakistan says. The projects' design must follow the treaty. Pakistan asked the Court to limit work at the Ratle plant.
India says. The Court's rulings will not affect India's actions on its projects.
The marks keep flowing unchanged. Under way on the Chenab: Pakal Dul, Kiru, Kwar, Ratle and Sawalkot (1,856 MW).
31 August 2026
What is verified. The Court of Arbitration found, unanimously, that the treaty "remains fully in force". It barred concreting of the Ratle dam wall above set levels until 90 days after the Neutral Expert rules, expected around 16 July 2027.
Pakistan says. Pakistan began the case in 2016 and applied on 4 March 2026 for a ruling on the treaty's status.
India says. India did not take part. Its foreign ministry calls the Court illegally constituted and says abeyance remains in force.
Only one side was in the room: India did not take part.
8 of 11. India spends nearly eight times what Pakistan spends.
Military spending, 2025
What is verified. SIPRI puts 2025 military spending at $92.1 billion for India and $11.9 billion for Pakistan. As a share of GDP the order flips: Pakistan 2.9 percent, India 2.3.
Pakistan's figures. Rank 31 in the world. Arms imports were 4.2 percent of the world total in 2021 to 2025, and China supplied 80 percent of them.
India's figures. Rank 5 in the world. Arms imports were 8.2 percent of the world total, second largest; Russia supplied 40 percent, down from 51.
The mirror fails by a factor of 7.7: beside the left gate the column is a stub.
Warheads, January 2026
What is verified. Estimates for January 2026 put India at about 190 warheads, 12 of them deployed, and Pakistan at about 170. Here the mirror nearly holds.
Pakistan's figures. About 170 warheads.
India's figures. About 190 warheads, 12 of them deployed.
Near twins: 190 against 170, a gap of 20.
9 of 11. Both governments answer to pressure at home.
What is verified. Pew fieldwork in 2026 found 54 percent of Indians name Pakistan as their greatest threat, and 43 percent of Pakistanis name India. About nine in ten Pakistanis and 78 percent of Indians view the other country unfavourably.
Pakistan at home. The 27th Amendment of November 2025 made Field Marshal Asim Munir Chief of Defence Forces. The opposition PTI calls it a blow to democracy. Pakistan has also fought Afghanistan since February 2026.
India at home. The BJP won West Bengal and Assam in the May 2026 state elections. Prime Minister Modi calls Operation Sindoor ongoing. Carnegie's Rakesh Sood says India treats a major terror attack as an act of war.
Threat perception is not mirrored: 54 against 43. Only Pakistan is also fighting on a western front.
10 of 11. In 2025 the ladder was climbed fast, then stopped.
22 April to 10 May 2025
What is verified. In 19 days the two sides climbed five rungs: attack, closures, cross-border strikes, air combat and strikes on military sites. Carnegie analysts find nuclear signals were used sparingly.
Pakistan says. Pakistan's National Security Committee said an attempt to divert its water would be an act of war, met with full force.
India says. India's prime minister said terrorism is an act of war and that India would not be deterred by nuclear blackmail.
Different tripwires: India's stated line is a terror attack; Pakistan's is the stopping of its water.
15 September 2026
What is verified. The Pakistani warship PNS Hunain and the Indian warship INS Kolkata collided in the Arabian Sea, about 220 km east of Oman. There was no major damage. Both capitals summoned envoys.
Pakistan says. It happened inside Pakistan's exclusive economic zone during exercise SEASPARK-26, and the Indian ship manoeuvred aggressively.
India says. It happened in international waters, after the Pakistani ship approached at speed.
Both sides cite the 1991 advance-notice agreement. The exact position has not been published.
11 of 11. Four futures for the next twelve months.
Frozen standoff
What is verified. Most likely on current evidence: no talks, airspace and trade closed, monthly airspace notices renewed, the legal fight continuing at The Hague. Watch the next notice, any Permanent Indus Commission meeting and the Neutral Expert's work toward July 2027.
Pakistan says. Pakistan says it offered a neutral inquiry into Pahalgam, that the treaty cannot be suspended, and that stopping its water would be an act of war.
India says. India says abeyance continues until Pakistan credibly and irrevocably ends support for cross-border terrorism, and that a major terror attack is an act of war.
Stalemate is where the mirror is perfect: both leaves shut, both lamps low.
Thaw by small steps
What is verified. Humanitarian data sharing, the Kartarpur corridor reopening, a cricket handshake. It needs a political decision on both sides and none is visible. Watch Kartarpur, flood-data messages and a Jaishankar-Dar contact beyond protocol.
Pakistan says. Pakistan says it offered a neutral inquiry into Pahalgam, that the treaty cannot be suspended, and that stopping its water would be an act of war.
India says. India says abeyance continues until Pakistan credibly and irrevocably ends support for cross-border terrorism, and that a major terror attack is an act of war.
A thaw needs both leaves at once: neither side's gesture moves its twin alone.
Crisis, round two
What is verified. A mass-casualty attack in India traced to Pakistan-based groups, then India's declared response. Carnegie authors warn of fewer stabilising third parties. Watch the toll, Line of Control firing, Indian security cabinet meetings, air and naval movements, nuclear signalling.
Pakistan says. Pakistan says it offered a neutral inquiry into Pahalgam, that the treaty cannot be suspended, and that stopping its water would be an act of war.
India says. India says abeyance continues until Pakistan credibly and irrevocably ends support for cross-border terrorism, and that a major terror attack is an act of war.
Escalation is not symmetric: the declared lines differ.
Water-driven friction
What is verified. Ratle and other Chenab projects, flow anomalies in the sowing season, Pakistani countermeasures. Watch Ratle concreting against the Court's interim order, unexplained Chenab level swings, and Pakistani legal or diplomatic steps.
Pakistan says. Pakistan says it offered a neutral inquiry into Pahalgam, that the treaty cannot be suspended, and that stopping its water would be an act of war.
India says. India says abeyance continues until Pakistan credibly and irrevocably ends support for cross-border terrorism, and that a major terror attack is an act of war.
Water breaks the mirror: India holds the upstream gate, Pakistan the downstream.
The thesis
What is verified. Sixteen months on, there is no working dialogue and the treaty is read two ways. The ceasefire holds mainly because neither side seems to want a second round. Talks, or a new mass-casualty attack, would change that.
Pakistan says. Pakistan says it offered a neutral inquiry into Pahalgam, that the treaty cannot be suspended, and that stopping its water would be an act of war.
India says. India says abeyance continues until Pakistan credibly and irrevocably ends support for cross-border terrorism, and that a major terror attack is an act of war.
Two gates, one river: still shut, still facing.
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