Russia has a free hand.
In the air.
Kyiv's winter under the strike campaign, and what still stands between a hard winter and the worst case.
What changed in 2026.
This deck tests one scenario: the total destruction of Kyiv and the collapse of Ukraine's forces. It is scenario analysis, not prediction. The sheets show what supports it, what constrains it, and what would mean it is coming.
Geneva talks end after about two hours. Zelensky says Russia is dragging out negotiations. S34
Largest 24-hour drone wave of the year: 948 drones, western cities hit. S11
The EU approves a EUR 90bn loan for 2026 and 2027 after Hungary lifts its veto. S26
Three heavy nights on Kyiv. July brings 376 missiles, a monthly record. S12 S8
US envoys reach Kyiv. Putin orders a 72-hour pause in strikes on the capital. S30 S32
Southern Bridge struck repeatedly. Paton Bridge open in one direction only. S19
On the ground, Russia is stuck.
ISW counts 622.6 km² of Russian gains in January to June 2026, 28% of the 2,189.87 km² in the same months of 2025. In September ISW records a net Russian loss.
| June 2025 | +481.25 km² | S4 |
|---|---|---|
| June 2026 | +30.42 km² | S4 |
| Sept 2026, ISW | −80.81 km² | S1 |
| Sept 2026, Putin | +1,301 km² | S1 |
Schematic sheet. Line shape is illustrative and place positions are approximate. The red line moves in proportion to the ISW area figure for one month. The dotted line is the start line. Blue is the Ukrainian line. S4 S1 S2
In the air, the pressure is rising.
Russia launched 376 missiles in July, a monthly record, and 4,956 long-range drones. Totals for March, April, August and September were not found, so those months are left blank.
Ukrainian Air Force data compiled by AFP. Hatched bars are derived from AFP percentage changes. Largest single 24 hours: 948 drones on 25 March. S10 S9 S8 S11
The gap is ballistic missiles.
On 6 July Russia launched 29 ballistic missiles and Ukraine intercepted none. In July it launched 126, and analysts count under a third downed. The interceptors that stop them are in short supply everywhere.
Dashed rows: a third of 126 is 42. Under a third were downed.
- About 120 a month Ukrainian officials' estimate of Russian ballistic production S15
- About 60 to 65 a month Patriot interceptors from Lockheed Martin, about 600 a year (Zelensky) S15
- One third of the 2025 interceptor deliveries arrived in 2026 (Zelensky, 5 Aug) S16
Count the nights on Kyiv.
Five nights in the sources reviewed, not every night of the campaign. One mark is one weapon: a dot for a drone, a ring for a missile. Step through to add a night.
- Nights logged
- 0 of 5
- Weapons counted
- 0
Schematic city sheet. Strike positions inside Kyiv are not in the sources, so each night is logged on the ledger acetate rather than placed on the streets. Weapon counts: Ukrainian Air Force figures. S12 S52 S51 S8 S18 S19
Kyiv is being cut up, not only hit.
Eight bridges cross the Dnipro in Kyiv. On 1 and 2 October the Southern Bridge was struck repeatedly and the Paton Bridge was open in one direction only. The mayor: "The enemy is tearing Kyiv apart." S19
- Struck
- Restricted
- No report in the sources
Schematic city sheet. Bridge positions along the river are approximate, and reports differ on whether eight counts road bridges only.
The cost falls on civilians.
The UN verified 293 civilians killed in June, the deadliest month since April 2022, and 372 in August. January to August: 2,222 killed and 13,058 injured. The UN says the true figure is higher.
- Civilians killed, Jan to Aug 2026
- 2,222 S23
- Injured, Jan to Aug 2026
- 13,058 S23
Civilians killed, UN verified
July is not stated. 454 is 2,222 minus 1,396 minus 372, and assumes no revisions.
First half of the year
UN cumulative since February 2022: 16,431 verified deaths, 803 of them children, to June 2026. Verification is impossible in occupied areas. S22
The danger is a winter campaign.
Reporting says Russia plans to isolate Kyiv, Kharkiv, Lviv and Odesa as winter begins and to collapse Ukraine's energy system. Step through the chain, one link at a time.
Arcs show direction and named targets only. Launch sites are not mapped. Hatched oval is schematic. S1 S45 S53
Limits on both sides.
Russia's deficit already exceeds its full-year plan, and contract recruitment is slower. Europe is shifting aid toward buying US weapons, and the US package has no Patriot missiles.
Russia
Budget deficit, trillion rubles
Army contracts signed, Jan to Aug, thousand
Per month in 2026, thousand (CSIS)
Ukraine's supporters
European allocations, May to June, EUR billion
- EUR 90bn EU loan for 2026 and 2027, approved 23 April S26
- About $400M US package, $307M contracted, no Patriot missiles S27
- EUR 3bn or more spent by Europe on US weapons, January to June S24
- No new pledges of Patriot interceptors at the 1 September EU defence ministers' meeting S29
Estimates of Russian casualties and recruitment differ by source. Financial and humanitarian aid ran 41% below the 2025 monthly average. S24 S37
What to watch.
The evidence does not support the collapse of Ukraine's forces. It supports a hard winter by air. Weight the indicators yourself: this is a reasoning tool, not a forecast.
Scenario pressure, 0 to 100. Bands follow the brief's three scenarios: stabilization, coercive attrition (central case), systemic shock (the scenario tested). The cut points at 34 and 67 are arbitrary. Starting positions are the author's reading of the evidence, set by hand.