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Conversions may be tracked wrong rather than lost.","owner":"elena-lin","notify":["wei-zhang"],"explain":{"metric":"conversion_rate","window":{"start":"2026-09-14","end":"2026-09-17","peak":"2026-09-14","baselineStart":"2026-08-17","baselineEnd":"2026-09-13","days":4},"baseline":0.021368815444475685,"spread":0.0008471814923427835,"observed":0.01473922902494331,"z":-5.2782016835146255,"pct":-31.024585507598974,"formula":"Conversion rate 1.47% vs 28-day median 2.14% (MAD 0.08%) → z = -5.3"}},{"id":"sig_1af24a9862","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"attention","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"mosse","channel":"email","metric":"conversion_rate","direction":"down","start":"2026-09-14","end":"2026-09-17","title":"Mossé · Email: Conversion rate 34% below baseline for 4 days","suggestedAction":"Check checkout, tags and stock. Conversions may be tracked wrong rather than lost.","owner":"elena-lin","notify":["hannah-brooks"],"explain":{"metric":"conversion_rate","window":{"start":"2026-09-14","end":"2026-09-17","peak":"2026-09-14","baselineStart":"2026-08-17","baselineEnd":"2026-09-13","days":4},"baseline":0.051288940216592215,"spread":0.0015650390847138825,"observed":0.033953997809419496,"z":-7.470905093615935,"pct":-33.798597385649984,"formula":"Conversion rate 3.40% vs 28-day median 5.13% (MAD 0.16%) → z = -7.5"}},{"id":"sig_1f045b1d26","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"attention","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"mosse","channel":"affiliate","metric":"conversion_rate","direction":"down","start":"2026-09-14","end":"2026-09-16","title":"Mossé · Affiliate: Conversion rate 32% below baseline for 3 days","suggestedAction":"Check checkout, tags and stock. Conversions may be tracked wrong rather than lost.","owner":"elena-lin","notify":["kofi-mensah"],"explain":{"metric":"conversion_rate","window":{"start":"2026-09-14","end":"2026-09-16","peak":"2026-09-15","baselineStart":"2026-08-18","baselineEnd":"2026-09-14","days":3},"baseline":0.0338458110516934,"spread":0.0014747743206012763,"observed":0.022900763358778626,"z":-5.005737778165145,"pct":-32.33796843041575,"formula":"Conversion rate 2.29% vs 28-day median 3.38% (MAD 0.15%) → z = -5.0"}},{"id":"sig_0269260fae","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"attention","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"ledgerly","channel":"paid_search","metric":"revenue","direction":"down","start":"2026-02-17","end":"2026-02-21","title":"Ledgerly · Paid search: Revenue 73% below baseline for 5 days","suggestedAction":"Check stock, pricing and checkout health first, then compare traffic with conversion rate to see which moved.","owner":"ana-reyes","notify":["wei-zhang"],"explain":{"metric":"revenue","window":{"start":"2026-02-17","end":"2026-02-21","peak":"2026-02-17","baselineStart":"2026-01-20","baselineEnd":"2026-02-16","days":5},"baseline":869.425,"spread":69.93,"observed":234.19,"z":-6.126986094610537,"pct":-73.06380653880437,"formula":"Revenue $234 vs 28-day median $869 (MAD $70) → z = -6.1"}},{"id":"sig_0eeeb6ae98","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"attention","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"ledgerly","channel":"paid_search","metric":"conversion_rate","direction":"down","start":"2026-02-17","end":"2026-02-21","title":"Ledgerly · Paid search: Conversion rate 77% below baseline for 5 days","suggestedAction":"Check checkout, tags and stock. Conversions may be tracked wrong rather than lost.","owner":"ana-reyes","notify":["wei-zhang"],"explain":{"metric":"conversion_rate","window":{"start":"2026-02-17","end":"2026-02-21","peak":"2026-02-17","baselineStart":"2026-01-20","baselineEnd":"2026-02-16","days":5},"baseline":0.029708431836091412,"spread":0.0010719564898502634,"observed":0.006802721088435374,"z":-14.412609452736113,"pct":-77.10171601797218,"formula":"Conversion rate 0.68% vs 28-day median 2.97% (MAD 0.11%) → z = -14.4"}},{"id":"sig_10dc6e81ff","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"attention","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"ledgerly","channel":"all","metric":"conversion_rate","direction":"down","start":"2026-02-17","end":"2026-02-21","title":"Ledgerly · All channels: Conversion rate 34% below baseline for 5 days","suggestedAction":"Check checkout, tags and stock. Conversions may be tracked wrong rather than lost.","owner":"ana-reyes","notify":["priya-nandakumar"],"explain":{"metric":"conversion_rate","window":{"start":"2026-02-17","end":"2026-02-21","peak":"2026-02-17","baselineStart":"2026-01-20","baselineEnd":"2026-02-16","days":5},"baseline":0.02046896001344086,"spread":0.0007104655375550547,"observed":0.013435700575815739,"z":-6.677126825890682,"pct":-34.36060959133615,"formula":"Conversion rate 1.34% vs 28-day median 2.05% (MAD 0.07%) → z = -6.7"}},{"id":"sig_130f673ba4","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"attention","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"mosse","channel":"all","metric":"revenue","direction":"down","start":"2026-01-19","end":"2026-01-23","title":"Mossé · All channels: Revenue 28% below baseline for 5 days","suggestedAction":"Check stock, pricing and checkout health first, then compare traffic with conversion rate to see which moved.","owner":"elena-lin","notify":["priya-nandakumar"],"explain":{"metric":"revenue","window":{"start":"2026-01-19","end":"2026-01-23","peak":"2026-01-20","baselineStart":"2025-12-23","baselineEnd":"2026-01-19","days":5},"baseline":10350.295000000002,"spread":309.47499999999945,"observed":7495.389999999999,"z":-6.222173169669712,"pct":-27.582837010925793,"formula":"Revenue $7,495 vs 28-day median $10,350 (MAD $309) → z = -6.2"}},{"id":"sig_1a882a59d7","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"attention","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"mosse","channel":"email","metric":"sessions","direction":"down","start":"2026-01-20","end":"2026-01-23","title":"Mossé · Email: Sessions 63% below baseline for 4 days","suggestedAction":"Check tracking and delivery for the channel before assuming demand fell; look for recent site or send changes.","owner":"elena-lin","notify":["hannah-brooks"],"explain":{"metric":"sessions","window":{"start":"2026-01-20","end":"2026-01-23","peak":"2026-01-20","baselineStart":"2025-12-23","baselineEnd":"2026-01-19","days":4},"baseline":833.5,"spread":54,"observed":310,"z":-6.538813196036992,"pct":-62.807438512297544,"formula":"Sessions 310 vs 28-day median 834 (MAD 54) → z = -6.5"}},{"id":"sig_03933657ff","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"attention","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"mosse","channel":"all","metric":"sessions","direction":"down","start":"2026-01-19","end":"2026-01-22","title":"Mossé · All channels: Sessions 20% below baseline for 4 days","suggestedAction":"Check tracking and delivery for the channel before assuming demand fell; look for recent site or send changes.","owner":"elena-lin","notify":["priya-nandakumar"],"explain":{"metric":"sessions","window":{"start":"2026-01-19","end":"2026-01-22","peak":"2026-01-20","baselineStart":"2025-12-23","baselineEnd":"2026-01-19","days":4},"baseline":5101,"spread":111,"observed":4056,"z":-6.3499355284057835,"pct":-20.48617918055283,"formula":"Sessions 4,056 vs 28-day median 5,101 (MAD 111) → z = -6.3"}},{"id":"sig_0d69574bc9","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"attention","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"ridgeway","channel":"organic","metric":"sessions","direction":"down","start":"2025-11-03","end":"2025-11-10","title":"Ridgeway · Organic: Sessions 43% below baseline for 8 days","suggestedAction":"Check tracking and delivery for the channel before assuming demand fell; look for recent site or send changes.","owner":"dana-vance","notify":["kofi-mensah"],"explain":{"metric":"sessions","window":{"start":"2025-11-03","end":"2025-11-10","peak":"2025-11-05","baselineStart":"2025-10-08","baselineEnd":"2025-11-04","days":8},"baseline":2451,"spread":119.5,"observed":1389,"z":-5.9942191344279845,"pct":-43.329253365973074,"formula":"Sessions 1,389 vs 28-day median 2,451 (MAD 120) → z = -6.0"}},{"id":"sig_0e39e80c24","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"attention","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"ridgeway","channel":"organic","metric":"revenue","direction":"down","start":"2025-11-03","end":"2025-11-07","title":"Ridgeway · Organic: Revenue 53% below baseline for 5 days","suggestedAction":"Check stock, pricing and checkout health first, then compare traffic with conversion rate to see which moved.","owner":"dana-vance","notify":["kofi-mensah"],"explain":{"metric":"revenue","window":{"start":"2025-11-03","end":"2025-11-07","peak":"2025-11-06","baselineStart":"2025-10-09","baselineEnd":"2025-11-05","days":5},"baseline":6377.610000000001,"spread":441.605,"observed":3006.54,"z":-5.148844701823498,"pct":-52.85788877024466,"formula":"Revenue $3,007 vs 28-day median $6,378 (MAD $442) → z = -5.1"}},{"id":"sig_09e81838f3","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"attention","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"ridgeway","channel":"all","metric":"sessions","direction":"down","start":"2025-11-03","end":"2025-11-05","title":"Ridgeway · All channels: Sessions 21% below baseline for 3 days","suggestedAction":"Check tracking and delivery for the channel before assuming demand fell; look for recent site or send changes.","owner":"dana-vance","notify":["priya-nandakumar"],"explain":{"metric":"sessions","window":{"start":"2025-11-03","end":"2025-11-05","peak":"2025-11-04","baselineStart":"2025-10-07","baselineEnd":"2025-11-03","days":3},"baseline":6586,"spread":154,"observed":5179,"z":-6.162392847945257,"pct":-21.363498329790463,"formula":"Sessions 5,179 vs 28-day median 6,586 (MAD 154) → z = -6.2"}},{"id":"sig_1f80834e77","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"attention","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"ridgeway","channel":"all","metric":"revenue","direction":"down","start":"2025-11-03","end":"2025-11-05","title":"Ridgeway · All channels: Revenue 22% below baseline for 3 days","suggestedAction":"Check stock, pricing and checkout health first, then compare traffic with conversion rate to see which moved.","owner":"dana-vance","notify":["priya-nandakumar"],"explain":{"metric":"revenue","window":{"start":"2025-11-03","end":"2025-11-05","peak":"2025-11-05","baselineStart":"2025-10-08","baselineEnd":"2025-11-04","days":3},"baseline":23021.439999999995,"spread":623.4450000000015,"observed":17922.33,"z":-5.516609446791118,"pct":-22.149396388757587,"formula":"Revenue $17,922 vs 28-day median $23,021 (MAD $623) → z = -5.5"}},{"id":"sig_096700ec0a","kind":"collision","rule":"collision.launch_overlap","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"kiln-coffee","channel":"all","metric":"launch_overlap","direction":"overlap","start":"2026-10-14","end":"2026-11-04","title":"Roaster's Reserve and Alpine Pack collide from 2026-10-14","suggestedAction":"Stagger the start dates or split the audience, and agree one owner for the shared email and paid social calendars.","owner":"marcus-thorne","notify":["dana-vance"],"launchIds":["lch-16","lch-17"],"explain":{"metric":"launch_overlap","window":{"start":"2026-10-14","end":"2026-11-04"},"baseline":2,"spread":null,"observed":3,"formula":"Roaster's Reserve (Kiln Coffee) and Alpine Pack (Ridgeway) overlap 2026-10-14 to 2026-11-04 (windows within 3 days), share 3 channels (paid_social, paid_search, email) and the audience outdoor-minded adults 25–44 → collision risk"}},{"id":"sig_02b243d8c7","kind":"pacing","rule":"pacing.budget","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"ridgeway","channel":"paid_social","metric":"spend","direction":"up","start":"2026-09-07","end":"2026-10-04","title":"Ridgeway · Paid social: spend ahead of plan at 116%","suggestedAction":"Confirm whether the extra spend was intended. If not, cut the daily budget so the flight lands on plan by its end date.","owner":"dana-vance","notify":["wei-zhang"],"campaignId":"cmp-ridgeway-paid_social-2026-09-07","explain":{"metric":"spend","window":{"start":"2026-09-07","end":"2026-10-04","days":28},"baseline":47687.64,"spread":null,"observed":55187.43,"pct":15.726905336477138,"formula":"Spend $55,187 to date vs plan $47,688 over 28 of 56 flight days → 115.7% of plan (+15.7%)"}},{"id":"sig_0f2164527f","kind":"pacing","rule":"pacing.budget","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"kiln-coffee","channel":"paid_social","metric":"spend","direction":"down","start":"2026-09-07","end":"2026-10-04","title":"Kiln Coffee · Paid social: spend behind plan at 73%","suggestedAction":"Check for paused ad sets or rejected ads. If it is intended, move the unspent budget to a channel that is working.","owner":"marcus-thorne","notify":["wei-zhang"],"campaignId":"cmp-kiln-coffee-paid_social-2026-09-07","explain":{"metric":"spend","window":{"start":"2026-09-07","end":"2026-10-04","days":28},"baseline":36041.6,"spread":null,"observed":26299.039999999997,"pct":-27.031430347154405,"formula":"Spend $26,299 to date vs plan $36,042 over 28 of 56 flight days → 73.0% of plan (-27.0%)"}},{"id":"sig_1d3f5bf338","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"kiln-coffee","channel":"paid_social","metric":"cpc","direction":"up","start":"2026-09-29","end":"2026-09-29","title":"Kiln Coffee · Paid social: CPC 18% above baseline","suggestedAction":"Check bid changes, audience overlap and competing launches on this channel. If it holds, cut the weakest ad set.","owner":"marcus-thorne","notify":["wei-zhang"],"explain":{"metric":"cpc","window":{"start":"2026-09-29","end":"2026-09-29","peak":"2026-09-29","baselineStart":"2026-09-01","baselineEnd":"2026-09-28","days":1},"baseline":0.780208866842706,"spread":0.014496823789342028,"observed":0.9243518518518519,"z":6.706511222376871,"pct":18.474922695053895,"formula":"CPC $0.92 vs 28-day median $0.78 (MAD $0.01) → z = 6.7"}},{"id":"sig_13549147eb","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"ledgerly","channel":"email","metric":"conversion_rate","direction":"down","start":"2026-09-28","end":"2026-09-28","title":"Ledgerly · Email: Conversion rate 22% below baseline","suggestedAction":"Check checkout, tags and stock. Conversions may be tracked wrong rather than lost.","owner":"ana-reyes","notify":["hannah-brooks"],"explain":{"metric":"conversion_rate","window":{"start":"2026-09-28","end":"2026-09-28","peak":"2026-09-28","baselineStart":"2026-08-31","baselineEnd":"2026-09-27","days":1},"baseline":0.03617636092468307,"spread":0.001027647305212858,"observed":0.028315946348733235,"z":-5.159140660652187,"pct":-21.728041115895348,"formula":"Conversion rate 2.83% vs 28-day median 3.62% (MAD 0.10%) → z = -5.2"}},{"id":"sig_1b0f3696a6","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"kiln-coffee","channel":"affiliate","metric":"revenue","direction":"up","start":"2026-09-24","end":"2026-09-26","title":"Kiln Coffee · Affiliate: Revenue 37% above baseline for 3 days","suggestedAction":"Find the cause (promo, press, holiday). If it is repeatable, brief the team; if not, do not forecast from it.","owner":"marcus-thorne","notify":["kofi-mensah"],"explain":{"metric":"revenue","window":{"start":"2026-09-24","end":"2026-09-26","peak":"2026-09-26","baselineStart":"2026-08-29","baselineEnd":"2026-09-25","days":3},"baseline":705.87,"spread":34.55000000000001,"observed":964.02,"z":5.039646586364197,"pct":36.57189000807514,"formula":"Revenue $964 vs 28-day median $706 (MAD $35) → z = 5.0"}},{"id":"sig_08daa3aa13","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"ridgeway","channel":"paid_search","metric":"sessions","direction":"down","start":"2026-09-22","end":"2026-09-22","title":"Ridgeway · Paid search: Sessions 24% below baseline","suggestedAction":"Check tracking and delivery for the channel before assuming demand fell; look for recent site or send changes.","owner":"dana-vance","notify":["wei-zhang"],"explain":{"metric":"sessions","window":{"start":"2026-09-22","end":"2026-09-22","peak":"2026-09-22","baselineStart":"2026-08-25","baselineEnd":"2026-09-21","days":1},"baseline":1096,"spread":37,"observed":831,"z":-4.830812196251291,"pct":-24.17883211678832,"formula":"Sessions 831 vs 28-day median 1,096 (MAD 37) → z = -4.8"}},{"id":"sig_19e1140cce","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"ridgeway","channel":"paid_social","metric":"spend","direction":"up","start":"2026-09-21","end":"2026-09-22","title":"Ridgeway · Paid social: Spend 18% above baseline for 2 days","suggestedAction":"Compare with the flight plan and the daily budget cap; confirm the extra spend was intended.","owner":"dana-vance","notify":["wei-zhang"],"explain":{"metric":"spend","window":{"start":"2026-09-21","end":"2026-09-22","peak":"2026-09-21","baselineStart":"2026-08-24","baselineEnd":"2026-09-20","days":2},"baseline":1771.5549999999998,"spread":69.36499999999978,"observed":2095.6,"z":3.150945839466504,"pct":18.29155741707145,"formula":"Spend $2,096 vs 28-day median $1,772 (MAD $69) → z = 3.2"}},{"id":"sig_0e076df05a","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"kiln-coffee","channel":"all","metric":"conversion_rate","direction":"up","start":"2026-09-20","end":"2026-09-20","title":"Kiln Coffee · All channels: Conversion rate 12% above baseline","suggestedAction":"Look for a leaked promo code or a tracking change that inflates conversions before treating it as a win.","owner":"marcus-thorne","notify":["priya-nandakumar"],"explain":{"metric":"conversion_rate","window":{"start":"2026-09-20","end":"2026-09-20","peak":"2026-09-20","baselineStart":"2026-08-23","baselineEnd":"2026-09-19","days":1},"baseline":0.036916798388298505,"spread":0.0005485830725084975,"observed":0.04151237575521341,"z":5.650328316311422,"pct":12.448472152372677,"formula":"Conversion rate 4.15% vs 28-day median 3.69% (MAD 0.05%) → z = 5.7"}},{"id":"sig_01b64adf01","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"ridgeway","channel":"paid_social","metric":"spend","direction":"up","start":"2026-09-15","end":"2026-09-19","title":"Ridgeway · Paid social: Spend 25% above baseline for 5 days","suggestedAction":"Compare with the flight plan and the daily budget cap; confirm the extra spend was intended.","owner":"dana-vance","notify":["wei-zhang"],"explain":{"metric":"spend","window":{"start":"2026-09-15","end":"2026-09-19","peak":"2026-09-17","baselineStart":"2026-08-20","baselineEnd":"2026-09-16","days":5},"baseline":1758,"spread":52.514999999999986,"observed":2204.14,"z":5.730121059371383,"pct":25.377701934015924,"formula":"Spend $2,204 vs 28-day median $1,758 (MAD $53) → z = 5.7"}},{"id":"sig_139da493a0","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"kiln-coffee","channel":"paid_social","metric":"spend","direction":"down","start":"2026-09-14","end":"2026-09-19","title":"Kiln Coffee · Paid social: Spend 30% below baseline for 6 days","suggestedAction":"Check for paused ad sets, rejected ads or a budget cap; confirm the lower spend was intended.","owner":"marcus-thorne","notify":["wei-zhang"],"explain":{"metric":"spend","window":{"start":"2026-09-14","end":"2026-09-19","peak":"2026-09-14","baselineStart":"2026-08-17","baselineEnd":"2026-09-13","days":6},"baseline":1152.275,"spread":44.49000000000012,"observed":805.06,"z":-5.263953900914037,"pct":-30.132997765290416,"formula":"Spend $805 vs 28-day median $1,152 (MAD $44) → z = -5.3"}},{"id":"sig_1268f97358","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"mosse","channel":"paid_search","metric":"conversion_rate","direction":"down","start":"2026-09-14","end":"2026-09-17","title":"Mossé · Paid search: Conversion rate 32% below baseline for 4 days","suggestedAction":"Check checkout, tags and stock. Conversions may be tracked wrong rather than lost.","owner":"elena-lin","notify":["wei-zhang"],"explain":{"metric":"conversion_rate","window":{"start":"2026-09-14","end":"2026-09-17","peak":"2026-09-14","baselineStart":"2026-08-17","baselineEnd":"2026-09-13","days":4},"baseline":0.041479289940828404,"spread":0.0018232518232518223,"observed":0.028241335044929396,"z":-4.897227106964809,"pct":-31.914613087117434,"formula":"Conversion rate 2.82% vs 28-day median 4.15% (MAD 0.18%) → z = -4.9"}},{"id":"sig_18450717dc","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"kiln-coffee","channel":"paid_social","metric":"sessions","direction":"down","start":"2026-09-14","end":"2026-09-16","title":"Kiln Coffee · Paid social: Sessions 34% below baseline for 3 days","suggestedAction":"Check tracking and delivery for the channel before assuming demand fell; look for recent site or send 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If it is repeatable, brief the team; if not, do not forecast from it.","owner":"sam-chen","notify":["wei-zhang"],"explain":{"metric":"revenue","window":{"start":"2026-09-08","end":"2026-09-08","peak":"2026-09-08","baselineStart":"2026-08-11","baselineEnd":"2026-09-07","days":1},"baseline":3797.4849999999997,"spread":347.1800000000003,"observed":6517.34,"z":5.284051686779807,"pct":71.62253438789095,"formula":"Revenue $6,517 vs 28-day median $3,797 (MAD $347) → z = 5.3"}},{"id":"sig_17a642f54d","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"hearthline","channel":"all","metric":"sessions","direction":"up","start":"2026-09-04","end":"2026-09-08","title":"Hearthline · All channels: Sessions 22% above baseline for 5 days","suggestedAction":"Find where the extra traffic came from and whether it converts before putting budget behind 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win.","owner":"sam-chen","notify":["kofi-mensah"],"explain":{"metric":"conversion_rate","window":{"start":"2026-09-04","end":"2026-09-07","peak":"2026-09-07","baselineStart":"2026-08-10","baselineEnd":"2026-09-06","days":4},"baseline":0.029850764689039622,"spread":0.0013673797992060591,"observed":0.04084158415841584,"z":5.421468252985777,"pct":36.81922250190042,"formula":"Conversion rate 4.08% vs 28-day median 2.99% (MAD 0.14%) → z = 5.4"}},{"id":"sig_01786d3f36","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"hearthline","channel":"paid_search","metric":"conversion_rate","direction":"up","start":"2026-09-04","end":"2026-09-06","title":"Hearthline · Paid search: Conversion rate 47% above baseline for 3 days","suggestedAction":"Look for a leaked promo code or a tracking change that inflates conversions before treating it as a win.","owner":"sam-chen","notify":["wei-zhang"],"explain":{"metric":"conversion_rate","window":{"start":"2026-09-04","end":"2026-09-06","peak":"2026-09-05","baselineStart":"2026-08-08","baselineEnd":"2026-09-04","days":3},"baseline":0.03607862255977389,"spread":0.001204878547773864,"observed":0.05321507760532151,"z":9.592983956568261,"pct":47.49753130723462,"formula":"Conversion rate 5.32% vs 28-day median 3.61% (MAD 0.12%) → z = 9.6"}},{"id":"sig_15a1696240","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"hearthline","channel":"paid_search","metric":"revenue","direction":"up","start":"2026-09-04","end":"2026-09-06","title":"Hearthline · Paid search: Revenue 140% above baseline for 3 days","suggestedAction":"Find the cause (promo, press, holiday). If it is repeatable, brief the team; if not, do not forecast from it.","owner":"sam-chen","notify":["wei-zhang"],"explain":{"metric":"revenue","window":{"start":"2026-09-04","end":"2026-09-06","peak":"2026-09-06","baselineStart":"2026-08-09","baselineEnd":"2026-09-05","days":3},"baseline":3754.54,"spread":341.03,"observed":8995.48,"z":10.365556112281228,"pct":139.58940376184566,"formula":"Revenue $8,995 vs 28-day median $3,755 (MAD $341) → z = 10.4"}},{"id":"sig_0f9e943017","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"hearthline","channel":"paid_search","metric":"cpc","direction":"up","start":"2026-08-26","end":"2026-08-27","title":"Hearthline · Paid search: CPC 17% above baseline for 2 days","suggestedAction":"Check bid changes, audience overlap and competing launches on this channel. If it holds, cut the weakest ad set.","owner":"sam-chen","notify":["wei-zhang"],"explain":{"metric":"cpc","window":{"start":"2026-08-26","end":"2026-08-27","peak":"2026-08-27","baselineStart":"2026-07-30","baselineEnd":"2026-08-26","days":2},"baseline":1.4354885475203774,"spread":0.0464054775140631,"observed":1.681981707317073,"z":3.582709789090631,"pct":17.171377662502504,"formula":"CPC $1.68 vs 28-day median $1.44 (MAD $0.05) → z = 3.6"}},{"id":"sig_176d9dabfe","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"mosse","channel":"all","metric":"conversion_rate","direction":"down","start":"2026-08-24","end":"2026-08-24","title":"Mossé · All channels: Conversion rate 10% below baseline","suggestedAction":"Check checkout, tags and stock. 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Conversions may be tracked wrong rather than lost.","owner":"sam-chen","notify":["kofi-mensah"],"explain":{"metric":"conversion_rate","window":{"start":"2026-08-07","end":"2026-08-07","peak":"2026-08-07","baselineStart":"2026-07-10","baselineEnd":"2026-08-06","days":1},"baseline":0.021418319425487747,"spread":0.00045116132810753447,"observed":0.018456375838926176,"z":-4.428135690633856,"pct":-13.829019577683887,"formula":"Conversion rate 1.85% vs 28-day median 2.14% (MAD 0.05%) → z = -4.4"}},{"id":"sig_0028560ffc","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"ridgeway","channel":"affiliate","metric":"revenue","direction":"up","start":"2026-08-02","end":"2026-08-02","title":"Ridgeway · Affiliate: Revenue 35% above baseline","suggestedAction":"Find the cause (promo, press, holiday). 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look for recent site or send changes.","owner":"marcus-thorne","notify":["kofi-mensah"],"explain":{"metric":"sessions","window":{"start":"2026-06-27","end":"2026-06-28","peak":"2026-06-27","baselineStart":"2026-05-30","baselineEnd":"2026-06-26","days":2},"baseline":1782.5,"spread":55.5,"observed":1486,"z":-3.603360543870459,"pct":-16.633941093969145,"formula":"Sessions 1,486 vs 28-day median 1,783 (MAD 56) → z = -3.6"}},{"id":"sig_0f8943f369","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"mosse","channel":"email","metric":"revenue","direction":"down","start":"2026-06-25","end":"2026-06-25","title":"Mossé · Email: Revenue 22% below baseline","suggestedAction":"Check stock, pricing and checkout health first, then compare traffic with conversion rate to see which moved.","owner":"elena-lin","notify":["hannah-brooks"],"explain":{"metric":"revenue","window":{"start":"2026-06-25","end":"2026-06-25","peak":"2026-06-25","baselineStart":"2026-05-28","baselineEnd":"2026-06-24","days":1},"baseline":2680.915,"spread":89.38499999999999,"observed":2099.61,"z":-4.386472572999296,"pct":-21.68308208205034,"formula":"Revenue $2,100 vs 28-day median $2,681 (MAD $89) → z = -4.4"}},{"id":"sig_1ad6585f54","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"ridgeway","channel":"organic","metric":"sessions","direction":"down","start":"2026-06-19","end":"2026-06-20","title":"Ridgeway · Organic: Sessions 20% below baseline for 2 days","suggestedAction":"Check tracking and delivery for the channel before assuming demand fell; look for recent site or send changes.","owner":"dana-vance","notify":["kofi-mensah"],"explain":{"metric":"sessions","window":{"start":"2026-06-19","end":"2026-06-20","peak":"2026-06-19","baselineStart":"2026-05-22","baselineEnd":"2026-06-18","days":2},"baseline":2937,"spread":110.5,"observed":2341,"z":-3.637977309032134,"pct":-20.292815798433775,"formula":"Sessions 2,341 vs 28-day median 2,937 (MAD 111) → z = -3.6"}},{"id":"sig_02c3c8717c","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"kiln-coffee","channel":"all","metric":"spend","direction":"down","start":"2026-06-17","end":"2026-06-17","title":"Kiln Coffee · All channels: Spend 10% below baseline","suggestedAction":"Check for paused ad sets, rejected ads or a budget cap; confirm the lower spend was intended.","owner":"marcus-thorne","notify":["priya-nandakumar"],"explain":{"metric":"spend","window":{"start":"2026-06-17","end":"2026-06-17","peak":"2026-06-17","baselineStart":"2026-05-20","baselineEnd":"2026-06-16","days":1},"baseline":2464.4449999999997,"spread":39.14000000000033,"observed":2219.9700000000003,"z":-4.212982330685715,"pct":-9.920083426491543,"formula":"Spend $2,220 vs 28-day median $2,464 (MAD $39) → z = -4.2"}},{"id":"sig_0ee3235f63","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"mosse","channel":"all","metric":"sessions","direction":"down","start":"2026-06-10","end":"2026-06-10","title":"Mossé · All channels: Sessions 11% below baseline","suggestedAction":"Check tracking and delivery for the channel before assuming demand fell; look for recent site or send changes.","owner":"elena-lin","notify":["priya-nandakumar"],"explain":{"metric":"sessions","window":{"start":"2026-06-10","end":"2026-06-10","peak":"2026-06-10","baselineStart":"2026-05-13","baselineEnd":"2026-06-09","days":1},"baseline":5180.5,"spread":77.5,"observed":4605,"z":-5.008637833274587,"pct":-11.108966315992665,"formula":"Sessions 4,605 vs 28-day median 5,181 (MAD 78) → z = -5.0"}},{"id":"sig_1478b03ecf","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"mosse","channel":"all","metric":"spend","direction":"down","start":"2026-06-09","end":"2026-06-10","title":"Mossé · All channels: Spend 7% below baseline for 2 days","suggestedAction":"Check for paused ad sets, rejected ads or a budget cap; confirm the lower spend was intended.","owner":"elena-lin","notify":["priya-nandakumar"],"explain":{"metric":"spend","window":{"start":"2026-06-09","end":"2026-06-10","peak":"2026-06-09","baselineStart":"2026-05-12","baselineEnd":"2026-06-08","days":2},"baseline":2936.59,"spread":35.085000000000036,"observed":2735.29,"z":-3.869887127907613,"pct":-6.854889514709243,"formula":"Spend $2,735 vs 28-day median $2,937 (MAD $35) → z = -3.9"}},{"id":"sig_1ff9f50b63","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"mosse","channel":"all","metric":"revenue","direction":"down","start":"2026-06-10","end":"2026-06-10","title":"Mossé · All channels: Revenue 15% below baseline","suggestedAction":"Check stock, pricing and checkout health first, then compare traffic with conversion rate to see which moved.","owner":"elena-lin","notify":["priya-nandakumar"],"explain":{"metric":"revenue","window":{"start":"2026-06-10","end":"2026-06-10","peak":"2026-06-10","baselineStart":"2026-05-13","baselineEnd":"2026-06-09","days":1},"baseline":10323.125,"spread":242.97000000000025,"observed":8795.599999999999,"z":-4.240447369508524,"pct":-14.797118120724118,"formula":"Revenue $8,796 vs 28-day median $10,323 (MAD $243) → z = -4.2"}},{"id":"sig_007b08bde9","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"mosse","channel":"email","metric":"conversion_rate","direction":"down","start":"2026-05-26","end":"2026-05-26","title":"Mossé · Email: Conversion rate 19% below baseline","suggestedAction":"Check checkout, tags and stock. Conversions may be tracked wrong rather than lost.","owner":"elena-lin","notify":["hannah-brooks"],"explain":{"metric":"conversion_rate","window":{"start":"2026-05-26","end":"2026-05-26","peak":"2026-05-26","baselineStart":"2026-04-28","baselineEnd":"2026-05-25","days":1},"baseline":0.052788290991335016,"spread":0.0016399773643407944,"observed":0.04250797024442083,"z":-4.228095764624369,"pct":-19.474623167099043,"formula":"Conversion rate 4.25% vs 28-day median 5.28% (MAD 0.16%) → z = -4.2"}},{"id":"sig_0f9ecc495e","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"mosse","channel":"paid_search","metric":"conversion_rate","direction":"up","start":"2026-05-22","end":"2026-05-22","title":"Mossé · Paid search: Conversion rate 15% above baseline","suggestedAction":"Look for a leaked promo code or a tracking change that inflates conversions before treating it as a win.","owner":"elena-lin","notify":["wei-zhang"],"explain":{"metric":"conversion_rate","window":{"start":"2026-05-22","end":"2026-05-22","peak":"2026-05-22","baselineStart":"2026-04-24","baselineEnd":"2026-05-21","days":1},"baseline":0.04179584393146806,"spread":0.0008010659364346522,"observed":0.047936085219707054,"z":5.170031356353543,"pct":14.691033152260408,"formula":"Conversion rate 4.79% vs 28-day median 4.18% (MAD 0.08%) → z = 5.2"}},{"id":"sig_195484af12","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"hearthline","channel":"paid_social","metric":"revenue","direction":"down","start":"2026-05-19","end":"2026-05-19","title":"Hearthline · Paid social: Revenue 33% below baseline","suggestedAction":"Check stock, pricing and checkout health first, then compare traffic with conversion rate to see which moved.","owner":"sam-chen","notify":["wei-zhang"],"explain":{"metric":"revenue","window":{"start":"2026-05-19","end":"2026-05-19","peak":"2026-05-19","baselineStart":"2026-04-21","baselineEnd":"2026-05-18","days":1},"baseline":2612.645,"spread":137.92500000000018,"observed":1755.67,"z":-4.190840809153195,"pct":-32.801050276635365,"formula":"Revenue $1,756 vs 28-day median $2,613 (MAD $138) → z = -4.2"}},{"id":"sig_079472f68c","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"ridgeway","channel":"paid_search","metric":"spend","direction":"up","start":"2026-05-15","end":"2026-05-15","title":"Ridgeway · Paid search: Spend 19% above baseline","suggestedAction":"Compare with the flight plan and the daily budget cap; confirm the extra spend was intended.","owner":"dana-vance","notify":["wei-zhang"],"explain":{"metric":"spend","window":{"start":"2026-05-15","end":"2026-05-15","peak":"2026-05-15","baselineStart":"2026-04-17","baselineEnd":"2026-05-14","days":1},"baseline":1898.1599999999999,"spread":58.99999999999977,"observed":2250.42,"z":4.027052795478415,"pct":18.55797193071186,"formula":"Spend $2,250 vs 28-day median $1,898 (MAD $59) → z = 4.0"}},{"id":"sig_03ad766d22","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"ledgerly","channel":"all","metric":"revenue","direction":"up","start":"2026-05-12","end":"2026-05-14","title":"Ledgerly · All channels: Revenue 128% above baseline for 3 days","suggestedAction":"Find the cause (promo, press, holiday). If it is repeatable, brief the team; if not, do not forecast from it.","owner":"ana-reyes","notify":["priya-nandakumar"],"explain":{"metric":"revenue","window":{"start":"2026-05-12","end":"2026-05-14","peak":"2026-05-12","baselineStart":"2026-04-14","baselineEnd":"2026-05-11","days":3},"baseline":2522.585,"spread":193.82499999999982,"observed":5763.18,"z":11.276932195052545,"pct":128.46326288311397,"formula":"Revenue $5,763 vs 28-day median $2,523 (MAD $194) → z = 11.3"}},{"id":"sig_0668e3f8b9","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"ledgerly","channel":"all","metric":"sessions","direction":"up","start":"2026-05-12","end":"2026-05-14","title":"Ledgerly · All channels: Sessions 141% above baseline for 3 days","suggestedAction":"Find where the extra traffic came from and whether it converts before putting budget behind it.","owner":"ana-reyes","notify":["priya-nandakumar"],"explain":{"metric":"sessions","window":{"start":"2026-05-12","end":"2026-05-14","peak":"2026-05-12","baselineStart":"2026-04-14","baselineEnd":"2026-05-11","days":3},"baseline":1882,"spread":98,"observed":4533,"z":18.24566329971892,"pct":140.86078639744952,"formula":"Sessions 4,533 vs 28-day median 1,882 (MAD 98) → z = 18.2"}},{"id":"sig_08262ff42c","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"ledgerly","channel":"organic","metric":"sessions","direction":"up","start":"2026-05-12","end":"2026-05-14","title":"Ledgerly · Organic: Sessions 179% above baseline for 3 days","suggestedAction":"Find where the extra traffic came from and whether it converts before putting budget behind it.","owner":"ana-reyes","notify":["kofi-mensah"],"explain":{"metric":"sessions","window":{"start":"2026-05-12","end":"2026-05-14","peak":"2026-05-12","baselineStart":"2026-04-14","baselineEnd":"2026-05-11","days":3},"baseline":1465.5,"spread":83.5,"observed":4095,"z":21.24040062327793,"pct":179.42681678607983,"formula":"Sessions 4,095 vs 28-day median 1,466 (MAD 84) → z = 21.2"}},{"id":"sig_0a0018b061","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"ledgerly","channel":"organic","metric":"revenue","direction":"up","start":"2026-05-12","end":"2026-05-14","title":"Ledgerly · Organic: Revenue 192% above baseline for 3 days","suggestedAction":"Find the cause (promo, press, holiday). 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If it holds, cut the weakest ad set.","owner":"sam-chen","notify":["wei-zhang"],"explain":{"metric":"cpc","window":{"start":"2026-04-20","end":"2026-04-20","peak":"2026-04-20","baselineStart":"2026-03-23","baselineEnd":"2026-04-19","days":1},"baseline":0.9256650217731951,"spread":0.025652501283458418,"observed":1.1087950882578665,"z":4.815106966036677,"pct":19.783621739737907,"formula":"CPC $1.11 vs 28-day median $0.93 (MAD $0.03) → z = 4.8"}},{"id":"sig_09d0e37f17","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"ledgerly","channel":"all","metric":"sessions","direction":"down","start":"2026-04-06","end":"2026-04-06","title":"Ledgerly · All channels: Sessions 22% below baseline","suggestedAction":"Check tracking and delivery for the channel before assuming demand fell; look for recent site or send changes.","owner":"ana-reyes","notify":["priya-nandakumar"],"explain":{"metric":"sessions","window":{"start":"2026-04-06","end":"2026-04-06","peak":"2026-04-06","baselineStart":"2026-03-09","baselineEnd":"2026-04-05","days":1},"baseline":2033.5,"spread":60,"observed":1578,"z":-5.120509015693153,"pct":-22.3998032948119,"formula":"Sessions 1,578 vs 28-day median 2,034 (MAD 60) → z = -5.1"}},{"id":"sig_1d951c8ef5","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"kiln-coffee","channel":"paid_search","metric":"spend","direction":"up","start":"2026-03-28","end":"2026-03-28","title":"Kiln Coffee · Paid search: Spend 10% above baseline","suggestedAction":"Compare with the flight plan and the daily budget cap; confirm the extra spend was intended.","owner":"marcus-thorne","notify":["wei-zhang"],"explain":{"metric":"spend","window":{"start":"2026-03-28","end":"2026-03-28","peak":"2026-03-28","baselineStart":"2026-02-28","baselineEnd":"2026-03-27","days":1},"baseline":1235.06,"spread":19.38499999999999,"observed":1357.09,"z":4.245968913021869,"pct":9.880491636033875,"formula":"Spend $1,357 vs 28-day median $1,235 (MAD $19) → z = 4.2"}},{"id":"sig_175fcec3cf","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"kiln-coffee","channel":"organic","metric":"conversion_rate","direction":"down","start":"2026-03-24","end":"2026-03-24","title":"Kiln Coffee · Organic: Conversion rate 20% below baseline","suggestedAction":"Check checkout, tags and stock. Conversions may be tracked wrong rather than lost.","owner":"marcus-thorne","notify":["kofi-mensah"],"explain":{"metric":"conversion_rate","window":{"start":"2026-03-24","end":"2026-03-24","peak":"2026-03-24","baselineStart":"2026-02-24","baselineEnd":"2026-03-23","days":1},"baseline":0.02905277679582507,"spread":0.0006953051971390605,"observed":0.02321981424148607,"z":-5.658348822161617,"pct":-20.077125829766494,"formula":"Conversion rate 2.32% vs 28-day median 2.91% (MAD 0.07%) → z = -5.7"}},{"id":"sig_1d796e0248","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"ridgeway","channel":"email","metric":"revenue","direction":"up","start":"2026-03-19","end":"2026-03-19","title":"Ridgeway · Email: Revenue 28% above baseline","suggestedAction":"Find the cause (promo, press, holiday). If it is repeatable, brief the team; if not, do not forecast from it.","owner":"dana-vance","notify":["hannah-brooks"],"explain":{"metric":"revenue","window":{"start":"2026-03-19","end":"2026-03-19","peak":"2026-03-19","baselineStart":"2026-02-19","baselineEnd":"2026-03-18","days":1},"baseline":5447.610000000001,"spread":183.6800000000003,"observed":6962.36,"z":5.56230878656996,"pct":27.805771705390047,"formula":"Revenue $6,962 vs 28-day median $5,448 (MAD $184) → z = 5.6"}},{"id":"sig_1308cc65d1","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"ridgeway","channel":"organic","metric":"conversion_rate","direction":"down","start":"2026-03-15","end":"2026-03-16","title":"Ridgeway · Organic: Conversion rate 14% below baseline for 2 days","suggestedAction":"Check checkout, tags and stock. Conversions may be tracked wrong rather than lost.","owner":"dana-vance","notify":["kofi-mensah"],"explain":{"metric":"conversion_rate","window":{"start":"2026-03-15","end":"2026-03-16","peak":"2026-03-16","baselineStart":"2026-02-16","baselineEnd":"2026-03-15","days":2},"baseline":0.01795979914061095,"spread":0.0004523197554597725,"observed":0.015412511332728921,"z":-3.798467936465408,"pct":-14.183275591997377,"formula":"Conversion rate 1.54% vs 28-day median 1.80% (MAD 0.05%) → z = -3.8"}},{"id":"sig_0016dfdc63","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"kiln-coffee","channel":"organic","metric":"revenue","direction":"up","start":"2026-03-11","end":"2026-03-13","title":"Kiln Coffee · Organic: Revenue 375% above baseline for 3 days","suggestedAction":"Find the cause (promo, press, holiday). If it is repeatable, brief the team; if not, do not forecast from it.","owner":"marcus-thorne","notify":["kofi-mensah"],"explain":{"metric":"revenue","window":{"start":"2026-03-11","end":"2026-03-13","peak":"2026-03-11","baselineStart":"2026-02-11","baselineEnd":"2026-03-10","days":3},"baseline":1751.31,"spread":143.515,"observed":8326.26,"z":30.90090247723681,"pct":375.4303921064803,"formula":"Revenue $8,326 vs 28-day median $1,751 (MAD $144) → z = 30.9"}},{"id":"sig_004ddeb43c","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"kiln-coffee","channel":"all","metric":"sessions","direction":"up","start":"2026-03-11","end":"2026-03-13","title":"Kiln Coffee · All channels: Sessions 112% above baseline for 3 days","suggestedAction":"Find where the extra traffic came from and whether it converts before putting budget behind it.","owner":"marcus-thorne","notify":["priya-nandakumar"],"explain":{"metric":"sessions","window":{"start":"2026-03-11","end":"2026-03-13","peak":"2026-03-11","baselineStart":"2026-02-11","baselineEnd":"2026-03-10","days":3},"baseline":5210,"spread":93,"observed":11068,"z":42.48566525821392,"pct":112.43761996161228,"formula":"Sessions 11,068 vs 28-day median 5,210 (MAD 93) → z = 42.5"}},{"id":"sig_036203e9e3","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"kiln-coffee","channel":"organic","metric":"sessions","direction":"up","start":"2026-03-11","end":"2026-03-13","title":"Kiln Coffee · Organic: Sessions 335% above baseline for 3 days","suggestedAction":"Find where the extra traffic came from and whether it converts before putting budget behind it.","owner":"marcus-thorne","notify":["kofi-mensah"],"explain":{"metric":"sessions","window":{"start":"2026-03-11","end":"2026-03-13","peak":"2026-03-11","baselineStart":"2026-02-11","baselineEnd":"2026-03-10","days":3},"baseline":1718.5,"spread":73.5,"observed":7471,"z":52.78922576719883,"pct":334.73959848705266,"formula":"Sessions 7,471 vs 28-day median 1,719 (MAD 74) → z = 52.8"}},{"id":"sig_1ac2f07c0d","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"kiln-coffee","channel":"all","metric":"revenue","direction":"up","start":"2026-03-11","end":"2026-03-13","title":"Kiln Coffee · All channels: Revenue 104% above baseline for 3 days","suggestedAction":"Find the cause (promo, press, holiday). If it is repeatable, brief the team; if not, do not forecast from it.","owner":"marcus-thorne","notify":["priya-nandakumar"],"explain":{"metric":"revenue","window":{"start":"2026-03-11","end":"2026-03-13","peak":"2026-03-11","baselineStart":"2026-02-11","baselineEnd":"2026-03-10","days":3},"baseline":6909.004999999999,"spread":175.65000000000055,"observed":14081.91,"z":27.543741196148318,"pct":103.81965275752445,"formula":"Revenue $14,082 vs 28-day median $6,909 (MAD $176) → z = 27.5"}},{"id":"sig_0304db1d5b","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"mosse","channel":"paid_search","metric":"sessions","direction":"up","start":"2026-03-05","end":"2026-03-05","title":"Mossé · Paid search: Sessions 36% above baseline","suggestedAction":"Find where the extra traffic came from and whether it converts before putting budget behind it.","owner":"elena-lin","notify":["wei-zhang"],"explain":{"metric":"sessions","window":{"start":"2026-03-05","end":"2026-03-05","peak":"2026-03-05","baselineStart":"2026-02-05","baselineEnd":"2026-03-04","days":1},"baseline":645.5,"spread":28.5,"observed":875,"z":5.431425589469424,"pct":35.55383423702556,"formula":"Sessions 875 vs 28-day median 646 (MAD 29) → z = 5.4"}},{"id":"sig_0b18511c54","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"mosse","channel":"paid_search","metric":"spend","direction":"up","start":"2026-03-05","end":"2026-03-05","title":"Mossé · Paid search: Spend 18% above baseline","suggestedAction":"Compare with the flight plan and the daily budget cap; confirm the extra spend was intended.","owner":"elena-lin","notify":["wei-zhang"],"explain":{"metric":"spend","window":{"start":"2026-03-05","end":"2026-03-05","peak":"2026-03-05","baselineStart":"2026-02-05","baselineEnd":"2026-03-04","days":1},"baseline":1379.76,"spread":38,"observed":1632.69,"z":4.489445994589875,"pct":18.33144894764307,"formula":"Spend $1,633 vs 28-day median $1,380 (MAD $38) → z = 4.5"}},{"id":"sig_183491386d","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"mosse","channel":"email","metric":"revenue","direction":"down","start":"2026-03-01","end":"2026-03-01","title":"Mossé · Email: Revenue 32% below baseline","suggestedAction":"Check stock, pricing and checkout health first, then compare traffic with conversion rate to see which moved.","owner":"elena-lin","notify":["hannah-brooks"],"explain":{"metric":"revenue","window":{"start":"2026-03-01","end":"2026-03-01","peak":"2026-03-01","baselineStart":"2026-02-01","baselineEnd":"2026-02-28","days":1},"baseline":2575.2200000000003,"spread":110.33499999999958,"observed":1764.02,"z":-4.958960475709578,"pct":-31.500221340312677,"formula":"Revenue $1,764 vs 28-day median $2,575 (MAD $110) → z = -5.0"}},{"id":"sig_1808103e6a","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"hearthline","channel":"all","metric":"conversion_rate","direction":"down","start":"2026-02-20","end":"2026-02-20","title":"Hearthline · All channels: Conversion rate 9% below baseline","suggestedAction":"Check checkout, tags and stock. Conversions may be tracked wrong rather than lost.","owner":"sam-chen","notify":["priya-nandakumar"],"explain":{"metric":"conversion_rate","window":{"start":"2026-02-20","end":"2026-02-20","peak":"2026-02-20","baselineStart":"2026-01-23","baselineEnd":"2026-02-19","days":1},"baseline":0.027625397716663745,"spread":0.00041665029517785543,"observed":0.025031685678073512,"z":-4.198808504445037,"pct":-9.388867683254007,"formula":"Conversion rate 2.50% vs 28-day median 2.76% (MAD 0.04%) → z = -4.2"}},{"id":"sig_1ff606ea6b","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"mosse","channel":"paid_search","metric":"cpc","direction":"down","start":"2026-02-19","end":"2026-02-19","title":"Mossé · Paid search: CPC 21% below baseline","suggestedAction":"Confirm the drop is real (a competitor pause or an auction change) and consider shifting budget in while it lasts.","owner":"elena-lin","notify":["wei-zhang"],"explain":{"metric":"cpc","window":{"start":"2026-02-19","end":"2026-02-19","peak":"2026-02-19","baselineStart":"2026-01-22","baselineEnd":"2026-02-18","days":1},"baseline":1.9959428115092135,"spread":0.04879307049748993,"observed":1.5782270270270269,"z":-5.774292001878538,"pct":-20.928244139737387,"formula":"CPC $1.58 vs 28-day median $2.00 (MAD $0.05) → z = -5.8"}},{"id":"sig_199daa21a5","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"kiln-coffee","channel":"paid_social","metric":"conversion_rate","direction":"down","start":"2026-02-17","end":"2026-02-17","title":"Kiln Coffee · Paid social: Conversion rate 17% below baseline","suggestedAction":"Check checkout, tags and stock. Conversions may be tracked wrong rather than lost.","owner":"marcus-thorne","notify":["wei-zhang"],"explain":{"metric":"conversion_rate","window":{"start":"2026-02-17","end":"2026-02-17","peak":"2026-02-17","baselineStart":"2026-01-20","baselineEnd":"2026-02-16","days":1},"baseline":0.02524984736013368,"spread":0.0006060738585646312,"observed":0.02107728337236534,"z":-4.643585617996817,"pct":-16.52510578878307,"formula":"Conversion rate 2.11% vs 28-day median 2.52% (MAD 0.06%) → z = -4.6"}},{"id":"sig_1bc8ee01c5","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"ridgeway","channel":"organic","metric":"conversion_rate","direction":"down","start":"2026-02-09","end":"2026-02-10","title":"Ridgeway · Organic: Conversion rate 11% below baseline for 2 days","suggestedAction":"Check checkout, tags and stock. Conversions may be tracked wrong rather than lost.","owner":"dana-vance","notify":["kofi-mensah"],"explain":{"metric":"conversion_rate","window":{"start":"2026-02-09","end":"2026-02-10","peak":"2026-02-10","baselineStart":"2026-01-13","baselineEnd":"2026-02-09","days":2},"baseline":0.017892148632362874,"spread":0.0003459709214970793,"observed":0.015919564306661083,"z":-3.8456697291695963,"pct":-11.024859932886036,"formula":"Conversion rate 1.59% vs 28-day median 1.79% (MAD 0.03%) → z = -3.8"}},{"id":"sig_07f0e9d2e3","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"hearthline","channel":"all","metric":"revenue","direction":"down","start":"2026-01-25","end":"2026-01-25","title":"Hearthline · All channels: Revenue 17% below baseline","suggestedAction":"Check stock, pricing and checkout health first, then compare traffic with conversion rate to see which moved.","owner":"sam-chen","notify":["priya-nandakumar"],"explain":{"metric":"revenue","window":{"start":"2026-01-25","end":"2026-01-25","peak":"2026-01-25","baselineStart":"2025-12-28","baselineEnd":"2026-01-24","days":1},"baseline":18354.005000000005,"spread":462.855000000005,"observed":15322.49,"z":-4.417644520885961,"pct":-16.516912793692732,"formula":"Revenue $15,322 vs 28-day median $18,354 (MAD $463) → z = -4.4"}},{"id":"sig_0a8d6cf7de","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"kiln-coffee","channel":"organic","metric":"sessions","direction":"down","start":"2026-01-25","end":"2026-01-25","title":"Kiln Coffee · Organic: Sessions 26% below baseline","suggestedAction":"Check tracking and delivery for the channel before assuming demand fell; look for recent site or send changes.","owner":"marcus-thorne","notify":["kofi-mensah"],"explain":{"metric":"sessions","window":{"start":"2026-01-25","end":"2026-01-25","peak":"2026-01-25","baselineStart":"2025-12-28","baselineEnd":"2026-01-24","days":1},"baseline":1771.5,"spread":69,"observed":1318,"z":-4.433066078588927,"pct":-25.59977420265312,"formula":"Sessions 1,318 vs 28-day median 1,772 (MAD 69) → z = -4.4"}},{"id":"sig_1aeb93a006","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"mosse","channel":"email","metric":"revenue","direction":"down","start":"2026-01-20","end":"2026-01-23","title":"Mossé · Email: Revenue 65% below baseline for 4 days","suggestedAction":"Check stock, pricing and checkout health first, then compare traffic with conversion rate to see which moved.","owner":"elena-lin","notify":["hannah-brooks"],"explain":{"metric":"revenue","window":{"start":"2026-01-20","end":"2026-01-23","peak":"2026-01-20","baselineStart":"2025-12-23","baselineEnd":"2026-01-19","days":4},"baseline":2734.225,"spread":254.79499999999985,"observed":963.56,"z":-4.687286566175263,"pct":-64.75930108165933,"formula":"Revenue $964 vs 28-day median $2,734 (MAD $255) → z = -4.7"}},{"id":"sig_070616ef1f","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"kiln-coffee","channel":"email","metric":"revenue","direction":"down","start":"2026-01-18","end":"2026-01-18","title":"Kiln Coffee · Email: Revenue 38% below baseline","suggestedAction":"Check stock, pricing and checkout health first, then compare traffic with conversion rate to see which moved.","owner":"marcus-thorne","notify":["hannah-brooks"],"explain":{"metric":"revenue","window":{"start":"2026-01-18","end":"2026-01-18","peak":"2026-01-18","baselineStart":"2025-12-21","baselineEnd":"2026-01-17","days":1},"baseline":1701.645,"spread":87.65999999999997,"observed":1058.99,"z":-4.944842106222124,"pct":-37.766690467165596,"formula":"Revenue $1,059 vs 28-day median $1,702 (MAD $88) → z = -4.9"}},{"id":"sig_0ffc01cd3a","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"kiln-coffee","channel":"paid_search","metric":"cpc","direction":"up","start":"2026-01-16","end":"2026-01-17","title":"Kiln Coffee · Paid search: CPC 13% above baseline for 2 days","suggestedAction":"Check bid changes, audience overlap and competing launches on this channel. If it holds, cut the weakest ad set.","owner":"marcus-thorne","notify":["wei-zhang"],"explain":{"metric":"cpc","window":{"start":"2026-01-16","end":"2026-01-17","peak":"2026-01-17","baselineStart":"2025-12-20","baselineEnd":"2026-01-16","days":2},"baseline":1.2215938677629326,"spread":0.03266755052250381,"observed":1.379615861214374,"z":3.262698692503596,"pct":12.935722552440637,"formula":"CPC $1.38 vs 28-day median $1.22 (MAD $0.03) → z = 3.3"}},{"id":"sig_0316a150b5","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"mosse","channel":"all","metric":"revenue","direction":"down","start":"2026-01-16","end":"2026-01-16","title":"Mossé · All channels: Revenue 19% below baseline","suggestedAction":"Check stock, pricing and checkout health first, then compare traffic with conversion rate to see which moved.","owner":"elena-lin","notify":["priya-nandakumar"],"explain":{"metric":"revenue","window":{"start":"2026-01-16","end":"2026-01-16","peak":"2026-01-16","baselineStart":"2025-12-19","baselineEnd":"2026-01-15","days":1},"baseline":10341.900000000001,"spread":240.91000000000076,"observed":8390.31,"z":-5.46398829972573,"pct":-18.870710411046343,"formula":"Revenue $8,390 vs 28-day median $10,342 (MAD $241) → z = -5.5"}},{"id":"sig_0daf080598","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"mosse","channel":"all","metric":"sessions","direction":"down","start":"2026-01-16","end":"2026-01-16","title":"Mossé · All channels: Sessions 15% below baseline","suggestedAction":"Check tracking and delivery for the channel before assuming demand fell; look for recent site or send changes.","owner":"elena-lin","notify":["priya-nandakumar"],"explain":{"metric":"sessions","window":{"start":"2026-01-16","end":"2026-01-16","peak":"2026-01-16","baselineStart":"2025-12-19","baselineEnd":"2026-01-15","days":1},"baseline":5097,"spread":102,"observed":4336,"z":-5.032230078055774,"pct":-14.930351186972729,"formula":"Sessions 4,336 vs 28-day median 5,097 (MAD 102) → z = -5.0"}},{"id":"sig_0f603cd6db","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"mosse","channel":"organic","metric":"sessions","direction":"down","start":"2026-01-16","end":"2026-01-16","title":"Mossé · Organic: Sessions 26% below baseline","suggestedAction":"Check tracking and delivery for the channel before assuming demand fell; look for recent site or send changes.","owner":"elena-lin","notify":["kofi-mensah"],"explain":{"metric":"sessions","window":{"start":"2026-01-16","end":"2026-01-16","peak":"2026-01-16","baselineStart":"2025-12-19","baselineEnd":"2026-01-15","days":1},"baseline":2061,"spread":79,"observed":1525,"z":-4.576291735182975,"pct":-26.006792819019893,"formula":"Sessions 1,525 vs 28-day median 2,061 (MAD 79) → z = -4.6"}},{"id":"sig_1dd875f681","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"hearthline","channel":"paid_social","metric":"revenue","direction":"down","start":"2026-01-12","end":"2026-01-12","title":"Hearthline · Paid social: Revenue 32% below baseline","suggestedAction":"Check stock, pricing and checkout health first, then compare traffic with conversion rate to see which moved.","owner":"sam-chen","notify":["wei-zhang"],"explain":{"metric":"revenue","window":{"start":"2026-01-12","end":"2026-01-12","peak":"2026-01-12","baselineStart":"2025-12-15","baselineEnd":"2026-01-11","days":1},"baseline":2866.245,"spread":137.385,"observed":1954.23,"z":-4.477531681071783,"pct":-31.819157120204306,"formula":"Revenue $1,954 vs 28-day median $2,866 (MAD $137) → z = -4.5"}},{"id":"sig_0671bc45cd","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"ridgeway","channel":"affiliate","metric":"sessions","direction":"down","start":"2025-12-30","end":"2025-12-30","title":"Ridgeway · Affiliate: Sessions 19% below baseline","suggestedAction":"Check tracking and delivery for the channel before assuming demand fell; look for recent site or send changes.","owner":"dana-vance","notify":["kofi-mensah"],"explain":{"metric":"sessions","window":{"start":"2025-12-30","end":"2025-12-30","peak":"2025-12-30","baselineStart":"2025-12-02","baselineEnd":"2025-12-29","days":1},"baseline":717.5,"spread":22.5,"observed":580,"z":-4.1218879745791925,"pct":-19.16376306620209,"formula":"Sessions 580 vs 28-day median 718 (MAD 23) → z = -4.1"}},{"id":"sig_1164c62d87","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"ridgeway","channel":"all","metric":"sessions","direction":"down","start":"2025-12-30","end":"2025-12-30","title":"Ridgeway · All channels: Sessions 14% below baseline","suggestedAction":"Check tracking and delivery for the channel before assuming demand fell; look for recent site or send changes.","owner":"dana-vance","notify":["priya-nandakumar"],"explain":{"metric":"sessions","window":{"start":"2025-12-30","end":"2025-12-30","peak":"2025-12-30","baselineStart":"2025-12-02","baselineEnd":"2025-12-29","days":1},"baseline":6805,"spread":147,"observed":5833,"z":-4.4598980830697315,"pct":-14.283614988978693,"formula":"Sessions 5,833 vs 28-day median 6,805 (MAD 147) → z = -4.5"}},{"id":"sig_083018b050","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"kiln-coffee","channel":"affiliate","metric":"conversion_rate","direction":"down","start":"2025-12-15","end":"2025-12-15","title":"Kiln Coffee · Affiliate: Conversion rate 16% below baseline","suggestedAction":"Check checkout, tags and stock. Conversions may be tracked wrong rather than lost.","owner":"marcus-thorne","notify":["kofi-mensah"],"explain":{"metric":"conversion_rate","window":{"start":"2025-12-15","end":"2025-12-15","peak":"2025-12-15","baselineStart":"2025-11-17","baselineEnd":"2025-12-14","days":1},"baseline":0.042752450084425644,"spread":0.0008837344706901125,"observed":0.036072144288577156,"z":-5.09859542568159,"pct":-15.625550775818736,"formula":"Conversion rate 3.61% vs 28-day median 4.28% (MAD 0.09%) → z = -5.1"}},{"id":"sig_01b38e5b16","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"kiln-coffee","channel":"affiliate","metric":"conversion_rate","direction":"up","start":"2025-12-10","end":"2025-12-14","title":"Kiln Coffee · Affiliate: Conversion rate 178% above baseline for 5 days","suggestedAction":"Look for a leaked promo code or a tracking change that inflates conversions before treating it as a win.","owner":"marcus-thorne","notify":["kofi-mensah"],"explain":{"metric":"conversion_rate","window":{"start":"2025-12-10","end":"2025-12-14","peak":"2025-12-13","baselineStart":"2025-11-15","baselineEnd":"2025-12-12","days":5},"baseline":0.04268535082488571,"spread":0.0008227957734280276,"observed":0.11885245901639344,"z":62.43835020832162,"pct":178.43851981908048,"formula":"Conversion rate 11.89% vs 28-day median 4.27% (MAD 0.08%) → z = 62.4"}},{"id":"sig_01ed9791bd","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"kiln-coffee","channel":"affiliate","metric":"revenue","direction":"up","start":"2025-12-10","end":"2025-12-13","title":"Kiln Coffee · Affiliate: Revenue 121% above baseline for 4 days","suggestedAction":"Find the cause (promo, press, holiday). If it is repeatable, brief the team; if not, do not forecast from it.","owner":"marcus-thorne","notify":["kofi-mensah"],"explain":{"metric":"revenue","window":{"start":"2025-12-10","end":"2025-12-13","peak":"2025-12-10","baselineStart":"2025-11-12","baselineEnd":"2025-12-09","days":4},"baseline":788.405,"spread":35.92500000000001,"observed":1745.41,"z":17.967739158605397,"pct":121.38494809139975,"formula":"Revenue $1,745 vs 28-day median $788 (MAD $36) → z = 18.0"}},{"id":"sig_06c32258ad","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"kiln-coffee","channel":"all","metric":"conversion_rate","direction":"up","start":"2025-12-10","end":"2025-12-13","title":"Kiln Coffee · All channels: Conversion rate 17% above baseline for 4 days","suggestedAction":"Look for a leaked promo code or a tracking change that inflates conversions before treating it as a win.","owner":"marcus-thorne","notify":["priya-nandakumar"],"explain":{"metric":"conversion_rate","window":{"start":"2025-12-10","end":"2025-12-13","peak":"2025-12-13","baselineStart":"2025-11-15","baselineEnd":"2025-12-12","days":4},"baseline":0.039670188433042375,"spread":0.0007506700425319382,"observed":0.046234422972728915,"z":5.898084763209795,"pct":16.54702132500841,"formula":"Conversion rate 4.62% vs 28-day median 3.97% (MAD 0.08%) → z = 5.9"}},{"id":"sig_1b575aa60a","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"hearthline","channel":"paid_search","metric":"cpc","direction":"up","start":"2025-12-09","end":"2025-12-09","title":"Hearthline · Paid search: CPC 23% above baseline","suggestedAction":"Check bid changes, audience overlap and competing launches on this channel. If it holds, cut the weakest ad set.","owner":"sam-chen","notify":["wei-zhang"],"explain":{"metric":"cpc","window":{"start":"2025-12-09","end":"2025-12-09","peak":"2025-12-09","baselineStart":"2025-11-11","baselineEnd":"2025-12-08","days":1},"baseline":1.5321672500199819,"spread":0.04368150211739408,"observed":1.87931654676259,"z":5.36036952626794,"pct":22.657402234519814,"formula":"CPC $1.88 vs 28-day median $1.53 (MAD $0.04) → z = 5.4"}},{"id":"sig_0aa75e8876","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"mosse","channel":"all","metric":"spend","direction":"up","start":"2025-12-07","end":"2025-12-07","title":"Mossé · All channels: Spend 15% above baseline","suggestedAction":"Compare with the flight plan and the daily budget cap; confirm the extra spend was intended.","owner":"elena-lin","notify":["priya-nandakumar"],"explain":{"metric":"spend","window":{"start":"2025-12-07","end":"2025-12-07","peak":"2025-12-07","baselineStart":"2025-11-09","baselineEnd":"2025-12-06","days":1},"baseline":2963.6499999999996,"spread":73.33500000000026,"observed":3421.44,"z":4.21047419077916,"pct":15.446830766116124,"formula":"Spend $3,421 vs 28-day median $2,964 (MAD $73) → z = 4.2"}},{"id":"sig_013c8d70bf","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"hearthline","channel":"affiliate","metric":"conversion_rate","direction":"up","start":"2025-11-28","end":"2025-12-01","title":"Hearthline · Affiliate: Conversion rate 63% above baseline for 4 days","suggestedAction":"Look for a leaked promo code or a tracking change that inflates conversions before treating it as a win.","owner":"sam-chen","notify":["kofi-mensah"],"explain":{"metric":"conversion_rate","window":{"start":"2025-11-28","end":"2025-12-01","peak":"2025-11-29","baselineStart":"2025-11-01","baselineEnd":"2025-11-28","days":4},"baseline":0.03241498062849763,"spread":0.0014556077099770314,"observed":0.052805280528052806,"z":9.448334720227283,"pct":62.90393979637008,"formula":"Conversion rate 5.28% vs 28-day median 3.24% (MAD 0.15%) → z = 9.4"}},{"id":"sig_0442207070","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"hearthline","channel":"email","metric":"revenue","direction":"up","start":"2025-11-28","end":"2025-12-01","title":"Hearthline · Email: Revenue 118% above baseline for 4 days","suggestedAction":"Find the cause (promo, press, holiday). If it is repeatable, brief the team; if not, do not forecast from it.","owner":"sam-chen","notify":["hannah-brooks"],"explain":{"metric":"revenue","window":{"start":"2025-11-28","end":"2025-12-01","peak":"2025-12-01","baselineStart":"2025-11-03","baselineEnd":"2025-11-30","days":4},"baseline":4999.325,"spread":347.21500000000015,"observed":10895.39,"z":11.45354134980738,"pct":117.93722152490587,"formula":"Revenue $10,895 vs 28-day median $4,999 (MAD $347) → z = 11.5"}},{"id":"sig_05ffae6e47","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"hearthline","channel":"organic","metric":"conversion_rate","direction":"up","start":"2025-11-28","end":"2025-12-01","title":"Hearthline · Organic: Conversion rate 53% above baseline for 4 days","suggestedAction":"Look for a leaked promo code or a tracking change that inflates conversions before treating it as a win.","owner":"sam-chen","notify":["kofi-mensah"],"explain":{"metric":"conversion_rate","window":{"start":"2025-11-28","end":"2025-12-01","peak":"2025-11-30","baselineStart":"2025-11-02","baselineEnd":"2025-11-29","days":4},"baseline":0.022019821183001102,"spread":0.0006852815693696619,"observed":0.03379457158062799,"z":11.5893388839392,"pct":53.4734151552365,"formula":"Conversion rate 3.38% vs 28-day median 2.20% (MAD 0.07%) → z = 11.6"}},{"id":"sig_07005d9314","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"hearthline","channel":"all","metric":"revenue","direction":"up","start":"2025-11-28","end":"2025-12-01","title":"Hearthline · All channels: Revenue 106% above baseline for 4 days","suggestedAction":"Find the cause (promo, press, holiday). If it is repeatable, brief the team; if not, do not forecast from it.","owner":"sam-chen","notify":["priya-nandakumar"],"explain":{"metric":"revenue","window":{"start":"2025-11-28","end":"2025-12-01","peak":"2025-11-30","baselineStart":"2025-11-02","baselineEnd":"2025-11-29","days":4},"baseline":20359.355,"spread":753.5550000000021,"observed":42009.53,"z":19.378602727805074,"pct":106.34018120908053,"formula":"Revenue $42,010 vs 28-day median $20,359 (MAD $754) → z = 19.4"}},{"id":"sig_0783448a29","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"hearthline","channel":"paid_social","metric":"revenue","direction":"up","start":"2025-11-28","end":"2025-12-01","title":"Hearthline · Paid social: Revenue 110% above baseline for 4 days","suggestedAction":"Find the cause (promo, press, holiday). If it is repeatable, brief the team; if not, do not forecast from it.","owner":"sam-chen","notify":["wei-zhang"],"explain":{"metric":"revenue","window":{"start":"2025-11-28","end":"2025-12-01","peak":"2025-11-28","baselineStart":"2025-10-31","baselineEnd":"2025-11-27","days":4},"baseline":3017.605,"spread":301.39999999999986,"observed":6334.47,"z":7.422676817954009,"pct":109.91713627197728,"formula":"Revenue $6,334 vs 28-day median $3,018 (MAD $301) → z = 7.4"}},{"id":"sig_0ad711ea08","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"hearthline","channel":"paid_search","metric":"revenue","direction":"up","start":"2025-11-28","end":"2025-12-01","title":"Hearthline · Paid search: Revenue 124% above baseline for 4 days","suggestedAction":"Find the cause (promo, press, holiday). If it is repeatable, brief the team; if not, do not forecast from it.","owner":"sam-chen","notify":["wei-zhang"],"explain":{"metric":"revenue","window":{"start":"2025-11-28","end":"2025-12-01","peak":"2025-11-29","baselineStart":"2025-11-01","baselineEnd":"2025-11-28","days":4},"baseline":4239,"spread":326.66999999999985,"observed":9501.17,"z":10.865047417255814,"pct":124.13706062750649,"formula":"Revenue $9,501 vs 28-day median $4,239 (MAD $327) → z = 10.9"}},{"id":"sig_0e7c9e2d95","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"hearthline","channel":"affiliate","metric":"revenue","direction":"up","start":"2025-11-28","end":"2025-12-01","title":"Hearthline · Affiliate: Revenue 97% above baseline for 4 days","suggestedAction":"Find the cause (promo, press, holiday). If it is repeatable, brief the team; if not, do not forecast from it.","owner":"sam-chen","notify":["kofi-mensah"],"explain":{"metric":"revenue","window":{"start":"2025-11-28","end":"2025-12-01","peak":"2025-11-28","baselineStart":"2025-10-31","baselineEnd":"2025-11-27","days":4},"baseline":2278.68,"spread":163.79999999999995,"observed":4481.81,"z":9.071983070364297,"pct":96.68448399950852,"formula":"Revenue $4,482 vs 28-day median $2,279 (MAD $164) → z = 9.1"}},{"id":"sig_0f56329ac2","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"hearthline","channel":"email","metric":"conversion_rate","direction":"up","start":"2025-11-28","end":"2025-12-01","title":"Hearthline · Email: Conversion rate 33% above baseline for 4 days","suggestedAction":"Look for a leaked promo code or a tracking change that inflates conversions before treating it as a win.","owner":"sam-chen","notify":["hannah-brooks"],"explain":{"metric":"conversion_rate","window":{"start":"2025-11-28","end":"2025-12-01","peak":"2025-11-28","baselineStart":"2025-10-31","baselineEnd":"2025-11-27","days":4},"baseline":0.04719275938050371,"spread":0.0015684835834013401,"observed":0.06296547054840894,"z":6.782696387280709,"pct":33.42188796534168,"formula":"Conversion rate 6.30% vs 28-day median 4.72% (MAD 0.16%) → z = 6.8"}},{"id":"sig_1299db4fb0","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"hearthline","channel":"paid_search","metric":"conversion_rate","direction":"up","start":"2025-11-28","end":"2025-12-01","title":"Hearthline · Paid search: Conversion rate 59% above baseline for 4 days","suggestedAction":"Look for a leaked promo code or a tracking change that inflates conversions before treating it as a win.","owner":"sam-chen","notify":["wei-zhang"],"explain":{"metric":"conversion_rate","window":{"start":"2025-11-28","end":"2025-12-01","peak":"2025-12-01","baselineStart":"2025-11-03","baselineEnd":"2025-11-30","days":4},"baseline":0.03780222684676233,"spread":0.0017779712337336433,"observed":0.06010518407212622,"z":8.460844738145695,"pct":58.99905663169706,"formula":"Conversion rate 6.01% vs 28-day median 3.78% (MAD 0.18%) → z = 8.5"}},{"id":"sig_183ab00ca9","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"hearthline","channel":"organic","metric":"revenue","direction":"up","start":"2025-11-28","end":"2025-12-01","title":"Hearthline · Organic: Revenue 149% above baseline for 4 days","suggestedAction":"Find the cause (promo, press, holiday). If it is repeatable, brief the team; if not, do not forecast from it.","owner":"sam-chen","notify":["kofi-mensah"],"explain":{"metric":"revenue","window":{"start":"2025-11-28","end":"2025-12-01","peak":"2025-11-30","baselineStart":"2025-11-02","baselineEnd":"2025-11-29","days":4},"baseline":5595.335,"spread":376.77999999999975,"observed":13956.49,"z":14.967678183692165,"pct":149.43082049600244,"formula":"Revenue $13,956 vs 28-day median $5,595 (MAD $377) → z = 15.0"}},{"id":"sig_1b7a1ef1d0","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"hearthline","channel":"all","metric":"conversion_rate","direction":"up","start":"2025-11-28","end":"2025-12-01","title":"Hearthline · All channels: Conversion rate 46% above baseline for 4 days","suggestedAction":"Look for a leaked promo code or a tracking change that inflates conversions before treating it as a win.","owner":"sam-chen","notify":["priya-nandakumar"],"explain":{"metric":"conversion_rate","window":{"start":"2025-11-28","end":"2025-12-01","peak":"2025-11-28","baselineStart":"2025-10-31","baselineEnd":"2025-11-27","days":4},"baseline":0.02889985830287793,"spread":0.0005130355922390931,"observed":0.042077649527806925,"z":17.324915748504445,"pct":45.59811708009901,"formula":"Conversion rate 4.21% vs 28-day median 2.89% (MAD 0.05%) → z = 17.3"}},{"id":"sig_1c751da8fa","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"hearthline","channel":"all","metric":"sessions","direction":"up","start":"2025-11-28","end":"2025-12-01","title":"Hearthline · All channels: Sessions 29% above baseline for 4 days","suggestedAction":"Find where the extra traffic came from and whether it converts before putting budget behind 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If it is repeatable, brief the team; if not, do not forecast from it.","owner":"elena-lin","notify":["kofi-mensah"],"explain":{"metric":"revenue","window":{"start":"2025-11-16","end":"2025-11-18","peak":"2025-11-17","baselineStart":"2025-10-20","baselineEnd":"2025-11-16","days":3},"baseline":2959.065,"spread":91.25500000000011,"observed":4309,"z":9.977740215813231,"pct":45.62032263569743,"formula":"Revenue $4,309 vs 28-day median $2,959 (MAD $91) → z = 10.0"}},{"id":"sig_0393d5bc05","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"mosse","channel":"all","metric":"sessions","direction":"up","start":"2025-11-11","end":"2025-11-14","title":"Mossé · All channels: Sessions 12% above baseline for 4 days","suggestedAction":"Find where the extra traffic came from and whether it converts before putting budget behind it.","owner":"elena-lin","notify":["priya-nandakumar"],"explain":{"metric":"sessions","window":{"start":"2025-11-11","end":"2025-11-14","peak":"2025-11-13","baselineStart":"2025-10-16","baselineEnd":"2025-11-12","days":4},"baseline":4751.5,"spread":65,"observed":5317,"z":5.868069607446378,"pct":11.901504787961697,"formula":"Sessions 5,317 vs 28-day median 4,752 (MAD 65) → z = 5.9"}},{"id":"sig_08ed941918","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"mosse","channel":"organic","metric":"revenue","direction":"up","start":"2025-11-12","end":"2025-11-13","title":"Mossé · Organic: Revenue 21% above baseline for 2 days","suggestedAction":"Find the cause (promo, press, holiday). If it is repeatable, brief the team; if not, do not forecast from it.","owner":"elena-lin","notify":["kofi-mensah"],"explain":{"metric":"revenue","window":{"start":"2025-11-12","end":"2025-11-13","peak":"2025-11-12","baselineStart":"2025-10-15","baselineEnd":"2025-11-11","days":2},"baseline":2951.49,"spread":83.67999999999984,"observed":3584.86,"z":5.105188961874907,"pct":21.45933071092907,"formula":"Revenue $3,585 vs 28-day median $2,951 (MAD $84) → z = 5.1"}},{"id":"sig_19b3d8142a","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"ridgeway","channel":"organic","metric":"revenue","direction":"down","start":"2025-11-09","end":"2025-11-10","title":"Ridgeway · Organic: Revenue 45% below baseline for 2 days","suggestedAction":"Check stock, pricing and checkout health first, then compare traffic with conversion rate to see which moved.","owner":"dana-vance","notify":["kofi-mensah"],"explain":{"metric":"revenue","window":{"start":"2025-11-09","end":"2025-11-10","peak":"2025-11-09","baselineStart":"2025-10-12","baselineEnd":"2025-11-08","days":2},"baseline":6310.135,"spread":496.99999999999955,"observed":3479.21,"z":-3.8419170085941294,"pct":-44.86314476631641,"formula":"Revenue $3,479 vs 28-day median $6,310 (MAD $497) → z = -3.8"}},{"id":"sig_0ed75b38c0","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"hearthline","channel":"all","metric":"spend","direction":"up","start":"2025-11-07","end":"2025-11-07","title":"Hearthline · All channels: Spend 13% above baseline","suggestedAction":"Compare with the flight plan and the daily budget cap; confirm the extra spend was intended.","owner":"sam-chen","notify":["priya-nandakumar"],"explain":{"metric":"spend","window":{"start":"2025-11-07","end":"2025-11-07","peak":"2025-11-07","baselineStart":"2025-10-10","baselineEnd":"2025-11-06","days":1},"baseline":3423.58,"spread":76.49999999999977,"observed":3884.3,"z":4.062109577856968,"pct":13.45725819171745,"formula":"Spend $3,884 vs 28-day median $3,424 (MAD $76) → z = 4.1"}},{"id":"sig_12335905f0","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"hearthline","channel":"email","metric":"revenue","direction":"up","start":"2025-11-05","end":"2025-11-05","title":"Hearthline · Email: Revenue 50% above baseline","suggestedAction":"Find the cause (promo, press, holiday). If it is repeatable, brief the team; if not, do not forecast from it.","owner":"sam-chen","notify":["hannah-brooks"],"explain":{"metric":"revenue","window":{"start":"2025-11-05","end":"2025-11-05","peak":"2025-11-05","baselineStart":"2025-10-08","baselineEnd":"2025-11-04","days":1},"baseline":4247.6849999999995,"spread":260.2950000000005,"observed":6377.17,"z":5.518038974794041,"pct":50.13283706301199,"formula":"Revenue $6,377 vs 28-day median $4,248 (MAD $260) → z = 5.5"}},{"id":"sig_1d607f58e0","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"hearthline","channel":"paid_social","metric":"spend","direction":"up","start":"2025-11-05","end":"2025-11-05","title":"Hearthline · Paid social: Spend 22% above baseline","suggestedAction":"Compare with the flight plan and the daily budget cap; confirm the extra spend was intended.","owner":"sam-chen","notify":["wei-zhang"],"explain":{"metric":"spend","window":{"start":"2025-11-05","end":"2025-11-05","peak":"2025-11-05","baselineStart":"2025-10-08","baselineEnd":"2025-11-04","days":1},"baseline":1476.8200000000002,"spread":50.35000000000025,"observed":1797.02,"z":4.289412933156,"pct":21.681721536815576,"formula":"Spend $1,797 vs 28-day median $1,477 (MAD $50) → z = 4.3"}},{"id":"sig_128e6be708","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"mosse","channel":"organic","metric":"revenue","direction":"up","start":"2025-10-29","end":"2025-10-29","title":"Mossé · Organic: Revenue 31% above baseline","suggestedAction":"Find the cause (promo, press, holiday). If it is repeatable, brief the team; if not, do not forecast from it.","owner":"elena-lin","notify":["kofi-mensah"],"explain":{"metric":"revenue","window":{"start":"2025-10-29","end":"2025-10-29","peak":"2025-10-29","baselineStart":"2025-10-01","baselineEnd":"2025-10-28","days":1},"baseline":2813.27,"spread":103.95000000000005,"observed":3683.94,"z":5.649435974540518,"pct":30.94868249403719,"formula":"Revenue $3,684 vs 28-day median $2,813 (MAD $104) → z = 5.6"}},{"id":"sig_007903adab","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"kiln-coffee","channel":"paid_search","metric":"revenue","direction":"up","start":"2025-10-11","end":"2025-10-11","title":"Kiln Coffee · Paid search: Revenue 57% above baseline","suggestedAction":"Find the cause (promo, press, holiday). If it is repeatable, brief the team; if not, do not forecast from it.","owner":"marcus-thorne","notify":["wei-zhang"],"explain":{"metric":"revenue","window":{"start":"2025-10-11","end":"2025-10-11","peak":"2025-10-11","baselineStart":"2025-09-13","baselineEnd":"2025-10-10","days":1},"baseline":1680.74,"spread":114.65000000000009,"observed":2644.73,"z":5.671193608616158,"pct":57.355093589728334,"formula":"Revenue $2,645 vs 28-day median $1,681 (MAD $115) → z = 5.7"}},{"id":"sig_0ea8f6e24d","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"kiln-coffee","channel":"paid_search","metric":"spend","direction":"up","start":"2025-10-10","end":"2025-10-11","title":"Kiln Coffee · Paid search: Spend 18% above baseline for 2 days","suggestedAction":"Compare with the flight plan and the daily budget cap; confirm the extra spend was intended.","owner":"marcus-thorne","notify":["wei-zhang"],"explain":{"metric":"spend","window":{"start":"2025-10-10","end":"2025-10-11","peak":"2025-10-11","baselineStart":"2025-09-13","baselineEnd":"2025-10-10","days":2},"baseline":1245.6750000000002,"spread":35.50000000000023,"observed":1470.1,"z":4.264016582972781,"pct":18.01633652437431,"formula":"Spend $1,470 vs 28-day median $1,246 (MAD $36) → z = 4.3"}},{"id":"sig_180891cf04","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"kiln-coffee","channel":"paid_search","metric":"sessions","direction":"up","start":"2025-10-10","end":"2025-10-11","title":"Kiln Coffee · Paid search: Sessions 35% above baseline for 2 days","suggestedAction":"Find where the extra traffic came from and whether it converts before putting budget behind it.","owner":"marcus-thorne","notify":["wei-zhang"],"explain":{"metric":"sessions","window":{"start":"2025-10-10","end":"2025-10-11","peak":"2025-10-11","baselineStart":"2025-09-13","baselineEnd":"2025-10-10","days":2},"baseline":979.5,"spread":41,"observed":1318,"z":5.568661514215304,"pct":34.55844818785094,"formula":"Sessions 1,318 vs 28-day median 980 (MAD 41) → z = 5.6"}},{"id":"sig_1f22eed8fb","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"ridgeway","channel":"paid_search","metric":"revenue","direction":"up","start":"2025-10-11","end":"2025-10-11","title":"Ridgeway · Paid search: Revenue 32% above baseline","suggestedAction":"Find the cause (promo, press, holiday). 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If it is repeatable, brief the team; if not, do not forecast from it.","owner":"marcus-thorne","notify":["wei-zhang"],"explain":{"metric":"revenue","window":{"start":"2025-09-28","end":"2025-09-28","peak":"2025-09-28","baselineStart":"2025-08-31","baselineEnd":"2025-09-27","days":1},"baseline":1591.085,"spread":120.79000000000008,"observed":2497.3,"z":5.060300054632688,"pct":56.95578803143767,"formula":"Revenue $2,497 vs 28-day median $1,591 (MAD $121) → z = 5.1"}},{"id":"sig_155445e3fb","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"kiln-coffee","channel":"paid_social","metric":"cpc","direction":"up","start":"2025-09-24","end":"2025-09-24","title":"Kiln Coffee · Paid social: CPC 26% above baseline","suggestedAction":"Check bid changes, audience overlap and competing launches on this channel. If it holds, cut the weakest ad set.","owner":"marcus-thorne","notify":["wei-zhang"],"explain":{"metric":"cpc","window":{"start":"2025-09-24","end":"2025-09-24","peak":"2025-09-24","baselineStart":"2025-08-27","baselineEnd":"2025-09-23","days":1},"baseline":0.7299489466181543,"spread":0.030475300621016055,"observed":0.9176621160409556,"z":4.154538121944956,"pct":25.715931270601093,"formula":"CPC $0.92 vs 28-day median $0.73 (MAD $0.03) → z = 4.2"}},{"id":"sig_036378d6d3","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"ledgerly","channel":"all","metric":"spend","direction":"up","start":"2025-09-21","end":"2025-09-22","title":"Ledgerly · All channels: Spend 15% above baseline for 2 days","suggestedAction":"Compare with the flight plan and the daily budget cap; confirm the extra spend was intended.","owner":"ana-reyes","notify":["priya-nandakumar"],"explain":{"metric":"spend","window":{"start":"2025-09-21","end":"2025-09-22","peak":"2025-09-21","baselineStart":"2025-08-24","baselineEnd":"2025-09-20","days":2},"baseline":808.94,"spread":20.334999999999923,"observed":927.65,"z":3.937486995695445,"pct":14.674759561895803,"formula":"Spend $928 vs 28-day median $809 (MAD $20) → z = 3.9"}},{"id":"sig_1bd9c1abb7","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"ledgerly","channel":"paid_search","metric":"spend","direction":"up","start":"2025-09-21","end":"2025-09-22","title":"Ledgerly · Paid search: Spend 15% above baseline for 2 days","suggestedAction":"Compare with the flight plan and the daily budget cap; confirm the extra spend was intended.","owner":"ana-reyes","notify":["wei-zhang"],"explain":{"metric":"spend","window":{"start":"2025-09-21","end":"2025-09-22","peak":"2025-09-21","baselineStart":"2025-08-24","baselineEnd":"2025-09-20","days":2},"baseline":808.94,"spread":20.334999999999923,"observed":927.65,"z":3.937486995695445,"pct":14.674759561895803,"formula":"Spend $928 vs 28-day median $809 (MAD $20) → z = 3.9"}},{"id":"sig_04a8e675f3","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"ridgeway","channel":"email","metric":"sessions","direction":"down","start":"2025-09-06","end":"2025-09-06","title":"Ridgeway · Email: Sessions 15% below baseline","suggestedAction":"Check tracking and delivery for the channel before assuming demand fell; look for recent site or send changes.","owner":"dana-vance","notify":["hannah-brooks"],"explain":{"metric":"sessions","window":{"start":"2025-09-06","end":"2025-09-06","peak":"2025-09-06","baselineStart":"2025-08-09","baselineEnd":"2025-09-05","days":1},"baseline":1063,"spread":26.5,"observed":903,"z":-4.072397038349254,"pct":-15.051740357478833,"formula":"Sessions 903 vs 28-day median 1,063 (MAD 27) → z = -4.1"}},{"id":"sig_1e11b55936","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"hearthline","channel":"paid_social","metric":"spend","direction":"up","start":"2025-08-31","end":"2025-08-31","title":"Hearthline · Paid social: Spend 21% above baseline","suggestedAction":"Compare with the flight plan and the daily budget cap; confirm the extra spend was intended.","owner":"sam-chen","notify":["wei-zhang"],"explain":{"metric":"spend","window":{"start":"2025-08-31","end":"2025-08-31","peak":"2025-08-31","baselineStart":"2025-08-03","baselineEnd":"2025-08-30","days":1},"baseline":1294.665,"spread":36.03499999999997,"observed":1560.15,"z":4.969257091151495,"pct":20.506076861581963,"formula":"Spend $1,560 vs 28-day median $1,295 (MAD $36) → z = 5.0"}},{"id":"sig_001e560dab","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"ledgerly","channel":"paid_search","metric":"sessions","direction":"up","start":"2025-08-26","end":"2025-08-26","title":"Ledgerly · Paid search: Sessions 31% above baseline","suggestedAction":"Find where the extra traffic came from and whether it converts before putting budget behind it.","owner":"ana-reyes","notify":["wei-zhang"],"explain":{"metric":"sessions","window":{"start":"2025-08-26","end":"2025-08-26","peak":"2025-08-26","baselineStart":"2025-07-29","baselineEnd":"2025-08-25","days":1},"baseline":319.5,"spread":12.5,"observed":419,"z":5.368946445433698,"pct":31.142410015649453,"formula":"Sessions 419 vs 28-day median 320 (MAD 13) → z = 5.4"}},{"id":"sig_03f66e253a","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"kiln-coffee","channel":"paid_search","metric":"revenue","direction":"up","start":"2025-08-21","end":"2025-08-24","title":"Kiln Coffee · Paid search: Revenue 72% above baseline for 4 days","suggestedAction":"Find the cause (promo, press, holiday). If it is repeatable, brief the team; if not, do not forecast from it.","owner":"marcus-thorne","notify":["wei-zhang"],"explain":{"metric":"revenue","window":{"start":"2025-08-21","end":"2025-08-24","peak":"2025-08-23","baselineStart":"2025-07-26","baselineEnd":"2025-08-22","days":4},"baseline":1605.585,"spread":137.30499999999995,"observed":2765.59,"z":5.6983551469112435,"pct":72.24812140123382,"formula":"Revenue $2,766 vs 28-day median $1,606 (MAD $137) → z = 5.7"}},{"id":"sig_05f095d2ea","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"kiln-coffee","channel":"paid_search","metric":"cpc","direction":"down","start":"2025-08-18","end":"2025-08-24","title":"Kiln Coffee · Paid search: CPC 41% below baseline for 7 days","suggestedAction":"Confirm the drop is real (a competitor pause or an auction change) and consider shifting budget in while it lasts.","owner":"marcus-thorne","notify":["wei-zhang"],"explain":{"metric":"cpc","window":{"start":"2025-08-18","end":"2025-08-24","peak":"2025-08-22","baselineStart":"2025-07-25","baselineEnd":"2025-08-21","days":7},"baseline":1.1400853636028054,"spread":0.059794992180848605,"observed":0.6735344827586207,"z":-5.262719275943931,"pct":-40.92245157589151,"formula":"CPC $0.67 vs 28-day median $1.14 (MAD $0.06) → z = -5.3"}},{"id":"sig_1f74e4a9be","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"kiln-coffee","channel":"paid_search","metric":"sessions","direction":"up","start":"2025-08-18","end":"2025-08-24","title":"Kiln Coffee · Paid search: Sessions 65% above baseline for 7 days","suggestedAction":"Find where the extra traffic came from and whether it converts before putting budget behind it.","owner":"marcus-thorne","notify":["wei-zhang"],"explain":{"metric":"sessions","window":{"start":"2025-08-18","end":"2025-08-24","peak":"2025-08-18","baselineStart":"2025-07-21","baselineEnd":"2025-08-17","days":7},"baseline":887.5,"spread":54,"observed":1462,"z":7.175832246653776,"pct":64.73239436619718,"formula":"Sessions 1,462 vs 28-day median 888 (MAD 54) → z = 7.2"}},{"id":"sig_0d5c64aa24","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"kiln-coffee","channel":"all","metric":"revenue","direction":"up","start":"2025-08-21","end":"2025-08-23","title":"Kiln Coffee · All channels: Revenue 32% above baseline for 3 days","suggestedAction":"Find the cause (promo, press, holiday). If it is repeatable, brief the team; if not, do not forecast from it.","owner":"marcus-thorne","notify":["priya-nandakumar"],"explain":{"metric":"revenue","window":{"start":"2025-08-21","end":"2025-08-23","peak":"2025-08-23","baselineStart":"2025-07-26","baselineEnd":"2025-08-22","days":3},"baseline":5965.965,"spread":201.8449999999998,"observed":7856.170000000001,"z":6.316360603514873,"pct":31.68313927419958,"formula":"Revenue $7,856 vs 28-day median $5,966 (MAD $202) → z = 6.3"}},{"id":"sig_0f074a634b","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"kiln-coffee","channel":"all","metric":"sessions","direction":"up","start":"2025-08-19","end":"2025-08-22","title":"Kiln Coffee · All channels: Sessions 23% above baseline for 4 days","suggestedAction":"Find where the extra traffic came from and whether it converts before putting budget behind it.","owner":"marcus-thorne","notify":["priya-nandakumar"],"explain":{"metric":"sessions","window":{"start":"2025-08-19","end":"2025-08-22","peak":"2025-08-21","baselineStart":"2025-07-24","baselineEnd":"2025-08-20","days":4},"baseline":4524.5,"spread":120,"observed":5565,"z":5.848396960294978,"pct":22.997016244888936,"formula":"Sessions 5,565 vs 28-day median 4,525 (MAD 120) → z = 5.8"}},{"id":"sig_1e6ca605fe","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"ridgeway","channel":"paid_search","metric":"conversion_rate","direction":"down","start":"2025-08-19","end":"2025-08-19","title":"Ridgeway · Paid search: Conversion rate 16% below baseline","suggestedAction":"Check checkout, tags and stock. 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Conversions may be tracked wrong rather than lost.","owner":"dana-vance","notify":["kofi-mensah"],"explain":{"metric":"conversion_rate","window":{"start":"2025-08-14","end":"2025-08-14","peak":"2025-08-14","baselineStart":"2025-07-17","baselineEnd":"2025-08-13","days":1},"baseline":0.018560482868355644,"spread":0.00040758136882017813,"observed":0.016012199771254287,"z":-4.217055864208511,"pct":-13.72961638539052,"formula":"Conversion rate 1.60% vs 28-day median 1.86% (MAD 0.04%) → z = -4.2"}},{"id":"sig_1914d8892f","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"mosse","channel":"all","metric":"revenue","direction":"up","start":"2025-08-11","end":"2025-08-12","title":"Mossé · All channels: Revenue 18% above baseline for 2 days","suggestedAction":"Find the cause (promo, press, holiday). 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If it holds, cut the weakest ad set.","owner":"ana-reyes","notify":["wei-zhang"],"explain":{"metric":"cpc","window":{"start":"2025-07-21","end":"2025-07-21","peak":"2025-07-21","baselineStart":"2025-06-23","baselineEnd":"2025-07-20","days":1},"baseline":2.171801315037164,"spread":0.06132824309239426,"observed":2.5392193308550186,"z":4.040879764988775,"pct":16.917662461750908,"formula":"CPC $2.54 vs 28-day median $2.17 (MAD $0.06) → z = 4.0"}},{"id":"sig_04e7005430","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"ridgeway","channel":"all","metric":"sessions","direction":"down","start":"2025-07-20","end":"2025-07-20","title":"Ridgeway · All channels: Sessions 7% below baseline","suggestedAction":"Check tracking and delivery for the channel before assuming demand fell; look for recent site or send changes.","owner":"dana-vance","notify":["priya-nandakumar"],"explain":{"metric":"sessions","window":{"start":"2025-07-20","end":"2025-07-20","peak":"2025-07-20","baselineStart":"2025-06-22","baselineEnd":"2025-07-19","days":1},"baseline":7066,"spread":79,"observed":6538,"z":-4.507988873463826,"pct":-7.47240305689216,"formula":"Sessions 6,538 vs 28-day median 7,066 (MAD 79) → z = -4.5"}},{"id":"sig_1156fb5da5","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"hearthline","channel":"paid_social","metric":"cpc","direction":"up","start":"2025-07-16","end":"2025-07-16","title":"Hearthline · Paid social: CPC 21% above baseline","suggestedAction":"Check bid changes, audience overlap and competing launches on this channel. If it holds, cut the weakest ad set.","owner":"sam-chen","notify":["wei-zhang"],"explain":{"metric":"cpc","window":{"start":"2025-07-16","end":"2025-07-16","peak":"2025-07-16","baselineStart":"2025-06-18","baselineEnd":"2025-07-15","days":1},"baseline":0.8940517026662953,"spread":0.02690533514032445,"observed":1.085509337860781,"z":4.799657952462296,"pct":21.414604392957262,"formula":"CPC $1.09 vs 28-day median $0.89 (MAD $0.03) → z = 4.8"}},{"id":"sig_1cf21f0fb2","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"ridgeway","channel":"email","metric":"sessions","direction":"down","start":"2025-07-13","end":"2025-07-13","title":"Ridgeway · Email: Sessions 21% below baseline","suggestedAction":"Check tracking and delivery for the channel before assuming demand fell; look for recent site or send changes.","owner":"dana-vance","notify":["hannah-brooks"],"explain":{"metric":"sessions","window":{"start":"2025-07-13","end":"2025-07-13","peak":"2025-07-13","baselineStart":"2025-06-15","baselineEnd":"2025-07-12","days":1},"baseline":1111.5,"spread":35,"observed":882,"z":-4.422732265710817,"pct":-20.647773279352226,"formula":"Sessions 882 vs 28-day median 1,112 (MAD 35) → z = -4.4"}},{"id":"sig_13a188cc2d","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"kiln-coffee","channel":"paid_social","metric":"spend","direction":"down","start":"2025-07-11","end":"2025-07-12","title":"Kiln Coffee · Paid social: Spend 16% below baseline for 2 days","suggestedAction":"Check for paused ad sets, rejected ads or a budget cap; confirm the lower spend was intended.","owner":"marcus-thorne","notify":["wei-zhang"],"explain":{"metric":"spend","window":{"start":"2025-07-11","end":"2025-07-12","peak":"2025-07-11","baselineStart":"2025-06-13","baselineEnd":"2025-07-10","days":2},"baseline":981.46,"spread":20.91500000000002,"observed":827.94,"z":-4.950887946203528,"pct":-15.642002730625801,"formula":"Spend $828 vs 28-day median $981 (MAD $21) → z = -5.0"}},{"id":"sig_1fa2887ef4","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"kiln-coffee","channel":"paid_social","metric":"sessions","direction":"down","start":"2025-07-11","end":"2025-07-11","title":"Kiln Coffee · Paid social: Sessions 26% below baseline","suggestedAction":"Check tracking and delivery for the channel before assuming demand fell; look for recent site or send changes.","owner":"marcus-thorne","notify":["wei-zhang"],"explain":{"metric":"sessions","window":{"start":"2025-07-11","end":"2025-07-11","peak":"2025-07-11","baselineStart":"2025-06-13","baselineEnd":"2025-07-10","days":1},"baseline":1249,"spread":48,"observed":924,"z":-4.566864517289447,"pct":-26.020816653322658,"formula":"Sessions 924 vs 28-day median 1,249 (MAD 48) → z = -4.6"}},{"id":"sig_122ffc4062","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"ledgerly","channel":"organic","metric":"revenue","direction":"down","start":"2025-07-09","end":"2025-07-09","title":"Ledgerly · Organic: Revenue 30% below baseline","suggestedAction":"Check stock, pricing and checkout health first, then compare traffic with conversion rate to see which moved.","owner":"ana-reyes","notify":["kofi-mensah"],"explain":{"metric":"revenue","window":{"start":"2025-07-09","end":"2025-07-09","peak":"2025-07-09","baselineStart":"2025-06-11","baselineEnd":"2025-07-08","days":1},"baseline":1200.665,"spread":61.305000000000064,"observed":836.74,"z":-4.0039809092654695,"pct":-30.31028638296277,"formula":"Revenue $837 vs 28-day median $1,201 (MAD $61) → z = -4.0"}},{"id":"sig_0aa4ffb4e0","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"mosse","channel":"paid_search","metric":"spend","direction":"down","start":"2025-07-07","end":"2025-07-07","title":"Mossé · Paid search: Spend 15% below baseline","suggestedAction":"Check for paused ad sets, rejected ads or a budget cap; confirm the lower spend was intended.","owner":"elena-lin","notify":["wei-zhang"],"explain":{"metric":"spend","window":{"start":"2025-07-07","end":"2025-07-07","peak":"2025-07-07","baselineStart":"2025-06-09","baselineEnd":"2025-07-06","days":1},"baseline":1251.545,"spread":31.010000000000105,"observed":1059.49,"z":-4.177340303491683,"pct":-15.345433044756685,"formula":"Spend $1,059 vs 28-day median $1,252 (MAD $31) → z = -4.2"}},{"id":"sig_168c987bad","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"hearthline","channel":"paid_search","metric":"conversion_rate","direction":"down","start":"2025-06-24","end":"2025-06-24","title":"Hearthline · Paid search: Conversion rate 16% below baseline","suggestedAction":"Check checkout, tags and stock. 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confirm the extra spend was intended.","owner":"marcus-thorne","notify":["wei-zhang"],"explain":{"metric":"spend","window":{"start":"2025-06-02","end":"2025-06-02","peak":"2025-06-02","baselineStart":"2025-05-05","baselineEnd":"2025-06-01","days":1},"baseline":920.475,"spread":18.480000000000018,"observed":1047.84,"z":4.648620972983571,"pct":13.836877699014083,"formula":"Spend $1,048 vs 28-day median $920 (MAD $18) → z = 4.6"}},{"id":"sig_0f3cdfeace","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"ridgeway","channel":"all","metric":"spend","direction":"up","start":"2025-06-01","end":"2025-06-01","title":"Ridgeway · All channels: Spend 9% above baseline","suggestedAction":"Compare with the flight plan and the daily budget cap; confirm the extra spend was intended.","owner":"dana-vance","notify":["priya-nandakumar"],"explain":{"metric":"spend","window":{"start":"2025-06-01","end":"2025-06-01","peak":"2025-06-01","baselineStart":"2025-05-04","baselineEnd":"2025-05-31","days":1},"baseline":3751.405,"spread":52.1749999999995,"observed":4097.79,"z":4.477881777121275,"pct":9.233473858461023,"formula":"Spend $4,098 vs 28-day median $3,751 (MAD $52) → z = 4.5"}},{"id":"sig_0b24a78961","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"ridgeway","channel":"paid_social","metric":"sessions","direction":"down","start":"2025-05-19","end":"2025-05-19","title":"Ridgeway · Paid social: Sessions 24% below baseline","suggestedAction":"Check tracking and delivery for the channel before assuming demand fell; 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Conversions may be tracked wrong rather than lost.","owner":"ana-reyes","notify":["priya-nandakumar"],"explain":{"metric":"conversion_rate","window":{"start":"2025-05-06","end":"2025-05-06","peak":"2025-05-06","baselineStart":"2025-04-08","baselineEnd":"2025-05-05","days":1},"baseline":0.019533345777758997,"spread":0.00040331244742839584,"observed":0.016877637130801686,"z":-4.441348025968914,"pct":-13.59576939441243,"formula":"Conversion rate 1.69% vs 28-day median 1.95% (MAD 0.04%) → z = -4.4"}},{"id":"sig_18501f6cd8","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"ridgeway","channel":"paid_social","metric":"spend","direction":"up","start":"2025-05-03","end":"2025-05-04","title":"Ridgeway · Paid social: Spend 13% above baseline for 2 days","suggestedAction":"Compare with the flight plan and the daily budget cap; confirm the extra spend was intended.","owner":"dana-vance","notify":["wei-zhang"],"explain":{"metric":"spend","window":{"start":"2025-05-03","end":"2025-05-04","peak":"2025-05-04","baselineStart":"2025-04-06","baselineEnd":"2025-05-03","days":2},"baseline":1486.19,"spread":31.710000000000036,"observed":1685.06,"z":4.230084431949235,"pct":13.381196213135594,"formula":"Spend $1,685 vs 28-day median $1,486 (MAD $32) → z = 4.2"}},{"id":"sig_1337b01279","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"kiln-coffee","channel":"paid_social","metric":"cpc","direction":"up","start":"2025-04-29","end":"2025-04-29","title":"Kiln Coffee · Paid social: CPC 14% above baseline","suggestedAction":"Check bid changes, audience overlap and competing launches on this channel. If it holds, cut the weakest ad set.","owner":"marcus-thorne","notify":["wei-zhang"],"explain":{"metric":"cpc","window":{"start":"2025-04-29","end":"2025-04-29","peak":"2025-04-29","baselineStart":"2025-04-01","baselineEnd":"2025-04-28","days":1},"baseline":0.7333564655012434,"spread":0.013560014864362702,"observed":0.835325,"z":5.072032366095352,"pct":13.904361561612719,"formula":"CPC $0.84 vs 28-day median $0.73 (MAD $0.01) → z = 5.1"}},{"id":"sig_05210478c4","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"ridgeway","channel":"all","metric":"spend","direction":"up","start":"2025-04-28","end":"2025-04-28","title":"Ridgeway · All channels: Spend 10% above baseline","suggestedAction":"Compare with the flight plan and the daily budget cap; confirm the extra spend was intended.","owner":"dana-vance","notify":["priya-nandakumar"],"explain":{"metric":"spend","window":{"start":"2025-04-28","end":"2025-04-28","peak":"2025-04-28","baselineStart":"2025-03-31","baselineEnd":"2025-04-27","days":1},"baseline":3378.3499999999995,"spread":55.75999999999931,"observed":3720.0899999999997,"z":4.133796128829531,"pct":10.115588970947364,"formula":"Spend $3,720 vs 28-day median $3,378 (MAD $56) → z = 4.1"}},{"id":"sig_0706f67a1d","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"mosse","channel":"paid_search","metric":"spend","direction":"up","start":"2025-04-26","end":"2025-04-27","title":"Mossé · Paid search: Spend 20% above baseline for 2 days","suggestedAction":"Compare with the flight plan and the daily budget cap; confirm the extra spend was intended.","owner":"elena-lin","notify":["wei-zhang"],"explain":{"metric":"spend","window":{"start":"2025-04-26","end":"2025-04-27","peak":"2025-04-26","baselineStart":"2025-03-29","baselineEnd":"2025-04-25","days":2},"baseline":1191.91,"spread":21.59999999999991,"observed":1432.5,"z":7.5127653621516055,"pct":20.185248886241403,"formula":"Spend $1,433 vs 28-day median $1,192 (MAD $22) → z = 7.5"}},{"id":"sig_011f522826","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"ridgeway","channel":"all","metric":"spend","direction":"up","start":"2025-04-25","end":"2025-04-25","title":"Ridgeway · All channels: Spend 8% above baseline","suggestedAction":"Compare with the flight plan and the daily budget cap; confirm the extra spend was intended.","owner":"dana-vance","notify":["priya-nandakumar"],"explain":{"metric":"spend","window":{"start":"2025-04-25","end":"2025-04-25","peak":"2025-04-25","baselineStart":"2025-03-28","baselineEnd":"2025-04-24","days":1},"baseline":3364.4049999999997,"spread":41.37499999999977,"observed":3645.0800000000004,"z":4.575533387700177,"pct":8.342485521214023,"formula":"Spend $3,645 vs 28-day median $3,364 (MAD $41) → z = 4.6"}},{"id":"sig_1066d8dbe0","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"mosse","channel":"all","metric":"revenue","direction":"up","start":"2025-04-25","end":"2025-04-25","title":"Mossé · All channels: Revenue 14% above baseline","suggestedAction":"Find the cause (promo, press, holiday). If it is repeatable, brief the team; if not, do not forecast from it.","owner":"elena-lin","notify":["priya-nandakumar"],"explain":{"metric":"revenue","window":{"start":"2025-04-25","end":"2025-04-25","peak":"2025-04-25","baselineStart":"2025-03-28","baselineEnd":"2025-04-24","days":1},"baseline":8228.935000000001,"spread":154.42500000000155,"observed":9384.89,"z":5.048929680238035,"pct":14.04744356347447,"formula":"Revenue $9,385 vs 28-day median $8,229 (MAD $154) → z = 5.0"}},{"id":"sig_13e55f9fb5","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"mosse","channel":"all","metric":"revenue","direction":"up","start":"2025-04-23","end":"2025-04-23","title":"Mossé · All channels: Revenue 14% above baseline","suggestedAction":"Find the cause (promo, press, holiday). If it is repeatable, brief the team; if not, do not forecast from it.","owner":"elena-lin","notify":["priya-nandakumar"],"explain":{"metric":"revenue","window":{"start":"2025-04-23","end":"2025-04-23","peak":"2025-04-23","baselineStart":"2025-03-26","baselineEnd":"2025-04-22","days":1},"baseline":8208.815,"spread":123.32999999999993,"observed":9341.66,"z":6.195520022859512,"pct":13.80034755320956,"formula":"Revenue $9,342 vs 28-day median $8,209 (MAD $123) → z = 6.2"}},{"id":"sig_019bcaa661","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"ledgerly","channel":"organic","metric":"revenue","direction":"up","start":"2025-04-22","end":"2025-04-22","title":"Ledgerly · Organic: Revenue 28% above baseline","suggestedAction":"Find the cause (promo, press, holiday). If it is repeatable, brief the team; if not, do not forecast from it.","owner":"ana-reyes","notify":["kofi-mensah"],"explain":{"metric":"revenue","window":{"start":"2025-04-22","end":"2025-04-22","peak":"2025-04-22","baselineStart":"2025-03-25","baselineEnd":"2025-04-21","days":1},"baseline":1163.91,"spread":34.11999999999989,"observed":1492.28,"z":6.491281673192562,"pct":28.21266249108607,"formula":"Revenue $1,492 vs 28-day median $1,164 (MAD $34) → z = 6.5"}},{"id":"sig_03821e8a9e","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"watch","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"ridgeway","channel":"all","metric":"spend","direction":"up","start":"2025-04-21","end":"2025-04-21","title":"Ridgeway · All channels: Spend 7% above baseline","suggestedAction":"Compare with the flight plan and the daily budget cap; confirm the extra spend was intended.","owner":"dana-vance","notify":["priya-nandakumar"],"explain":{"metric":"spend","window":{"start":"2025-04-21","end":"2025-04-21","peak":"2025-04-21","baselineStart":"2025-03-24","baselineEnd":"2025-04-20","days":1},"baseline":3351.1499999999996,"spread":33.5115,"observed":3602.03,"z":5.049497686987708,"pct":7.486385270727977,"formula":"Spend $3,602 vs 28-day median $3,351 (MAD $34) → z = 5.0"}},{"id":"sig_06c71303f5","kind":"momentum","rule":"momentum.7v28","severity":"info","coverageState":"info","brandId":"kiln-coffee","channel":"paid_social","metric":"revenue","direction":"down","start":"2026-09-28","end":"2026-10-04","title":"Kiln Coffee · Paid social: Revenue down 19% on the last 7 days","suggestedAction":"Watch the next week. If the trend holds, update the forecast; if it reverses, treat it as noise.","owner":"marcus-thorne","notify":[],"explain":{"metric":"revenue","window":{"start":"2026-09-28","end":"2026-10-04","baselineStart":"2026-08-31","baselineEnd":"2026-09-27","days":7},"baseline":1171.8753846153845,"spread":null,"observed":943.6914285714286,"pct":-19.471691191708672,"formula":"Revenue: last 7-day mean $944 per day vs prior 28-day mean $1,172 per day (2 flagged days left out) → -19.5%"}},{"id":"sig_0ae30829b5","kind":"momentum","rule":"momentum.7v28","severity":"info","coverageState":"info","brandId":"kiln-coffee","channel":"paid_social","metric":"sessions","direction":"down","start":"2026-09-28","end":"2026-10-04","title":"Kiln Coffee · Paid social: Sessions down 19% on the last 7 days","suggestedAction":"Watch the next week. If the trend holds, update the forecast; if it reverses, treat it as noise.","owner":"marcus-thorne","notify":[],"explain":{"metric":"sessions","window":{"start":"2026-09-28","end":"2026-10-04","baselineStart":"2026-08-31","baselineEnd":"2026-09-27","days":7},"baseline":1256.16,"spread":null,"observed":1022,"pct":-18.64093746019616,"formula":"Sessions: last 7-day mean 1,022 per day vs prior 28-day mean 1,256 per day (3 flagged days left out) → -18.6%"}},{"id":"sig_0c938cdbdd","kind":"coverage","rule":"coverage.not_tracked","severity":"info","coverageState":"not_tracked","brandId":"ledgerly","channel":"affiliate","metric":"coverage","direction":"missing","start":"2025-04-07","end":"2026-10-04","title":"Ledgerly · Affiliate: not tracked yet","suggestedAction":"Decide whether to connect this channel. Until then it is shown as not tracked, never as on track.","owner":"ana-reyes","notify":["jonah-okafor"],"explain":{"metric":"coverage","window":{"start":"2025-04-07","end":"2026-10-04","days":546},"baseline":null,"spread":null,"observed":0,"formula":"Affiliate: 0 of 546 days received. No source has ever reported this channel for Ledgerly, so it is not tracked yet. This is not an anomaly and not a data gap."}},{"id":"sig_1100cc9a83","kind":"coverage","rule":"coverage.not_tracked","severity":"info","coverageState":"not_tracked","brandId":"ledgerly","channel":"paid_social","metric":"coverage","direction":"missing","start":"2025-04-07","end":"2026-10-04","title":"Ledgerly · Paid social: not tracked yet","suggestedAction":"Decide whether to connect this channel. Until then it is shown as not tracked, never as on track.","owner":"ana-reyes","notify":["jonah-okafor"],"explain":{"metric":"coverage","window":{"start":"2025-04-07","end":"2026-10-04","days":546},"baseline":null,"spread":null,"observed":0,"formula":"Paid social: 0 of 546 days received. No source has ever reported this channel for Ledgerly, so it is not tracked yet. This is not an anomaly and not a data gap."}},{"id":"sig_155f4acebc","kind":"momentum","rule":"momentum.7v28","severity":"info","coverageState":"info","brandId":"mosse","channel":"organic","metric":"sessions","direction":"up","start":"2026-09-28","end":"2026-10-04","title":"Mossé · Organic: Sessions up 15% on the last 7 days","suggestedAction":"Watch the next week. If the trend holds, update the forecast; if it reverses, treat it as noise.","owner":"elena-lin","notify":[],"explain":{"metric":"sessions","window":{"start":"2026-09-28","end":"2026-10-04","baselineStart":"2026-08-31","baselineEnd":"2026-09-27","days":7},"baseline":2077.0714285714284,"spread":null,"observed":2395.8571428571427,"pct":15.34784552426149,"formula":"Sessions: last 7-day mean 2,396 per day vs prior 28-day mean 2,077 per day → +15.3%"}},{"id":"sig_1967d26bce","kind":"momentum","rule":"momentum.7v28","severity":"info","coverageState":"info","brandId":"mosse","channel":"organic","metric":"revenue","direction":"up","start":"2026-09-28","end":"2026-10-04","title":"Mossé · Organic: Revenue up 25% on the last 7 days","suggestedAction":"Watch the next week. If the trend holds, update the forecast; if it reverses, treat it as noise.","owner":"elena-lin","notify":[],"explain":{"metric":"revenue","window":{"start":"2026-09-28","end":"2026-10-04","baselineStart":"2026-08-31","baselineEnd":"2026-09-27","days":7},"baseline":2937.426428571428,"spread":null,"observed":3680.681428571428,"pct":25.302931599259516,"formula":"Revenue: last 7-day mean $3,681 per day vs prior 28-day mean $2,937 per day → +25.3%"}},{"id":"sig_1cce6a7649","kind":"momentum","rule":"momentum.7v28","severity":"info","coverageState":"info","brandId":"kiln-coffee","channel":"paid_social","metric":"spend","direction":"down","start":"2026-09-28","end":"2026-10-04","title":"Kiln Coffee · Paid social: Spend down 18% on the last 7 days","suggestedAction":"Watch the next week. If the trend holds, update the forecast; if it reverses, treat it as noise.","owner":"marcus-thorne","notify":[],"explain":{"metric":"spend","window":{"start":"2026-09-28","end":"2026-10-04","baselineStart":"2026-08-31","baselineEnd":"2026-09-27","days":7},"baseline":1061.3440909090907,"spread":null,"observed":874.8357142857142,"pct":-17.572847318876896,"formula":"Spend: last 7-day mean $875 per day vs prior 28-day mean $1,061 per day (6 flagged days left out) → -17.6%"}},{"id":"sig_1fcaf462da","kind":"momentum","rule":"momentum.7v28","severity":"info","coverageState":"info","brandId":"mosse","channel":"paid_social","metric":"cpc","direction":"up","start":"2026-09-28","end":"2026-10-04","title":"Mossé · Paid social: CPC up 18% on the last 7 days","suggestedAction":"Watch the next week. If the trend holds, update the forecast; if it reverses, treat it as noise.","owner":"elena-lin","notify":[],"explain":{"metric":"cpc","window":{"start":"2026-09-28","end":"2026-10-04","baselineStart":"2026-08-31","baselineEnd":"2026-09-27","days":7},"baseline":1.285688522950765,"spread":null,"observed":1.5213172702351754,"pct":18.327047576315156,"formula":"CPC: last 7-day rate $1.52 vs prior 28-day rate $1.29 → +18.3%"}},{"id":"sig_175e244506","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"info","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"kiln-coffee","channel":"paid_social","metric":"cpc","direction":"down","start":"2026-10-03","end":"2026-10-03","title":"Kiln Coffee · Paid social: CPC 9% below baseline","suggestedAction":"Confirm the drop is real (a competitor pause or an auction change) and consider shifting budget in while it lasts.","owner":"marcus-thorne","notify":["wei-zhang"],"explain":{"metric":"cpc","window":{"start":"2026-10-03","end":"2026-10-03","peak":"2026-10-03","baselineStart":"2026-09-05","baselineEnd":"2026-10-02","days":1},"baseline":0.780208866842706,"spread":0.012327825024417371,"observed":0.7061508553654744,"z":-4.051926784138072,"pct":-9.492075087139714,"formula":"CPC $0.71 vs 28-day median $0.78 (MAD $0.01) → z = -4.1"}},{"id":"sig_02e8880c62","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"info","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"mosse","channel":"organic","metric":"sessions","direction":"up","start":"2026-09-28","end":"2026-09-28","title":"Mossé · Organic: Sessions 32% above baseline","suggestedAction":"Find where the extra traffic came from and whether it converts before putting budget behind it.","owner":"elena-lin","notify":["kofi-mensah"],"explain":{"metric":"sessions","window":{"start":"2026-09-28","end":"2026-09-28","peak":"2026-09-28","baselineStart":"2026-08-31","baselineEnd":"2026-09-27","days":1},"baseline":2047.5,"spread":107.5,"observed":2712,"z":4.169294043462303,"pct":32.45421245421245,"formula":"Sessions 2,712 vs 28-day median 2,048 (MAD 108) → z = 4.2"}},{"id":"sig_18cf49318d","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"info","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"kiln-coffee","channel":"all","metric":"sessions","direction":"up","start":"2026-09-13","end":"2026-09-13","title":"Kiln Coffee · All channels: Sessions 13% above baseline","suggestedAction":"Find where the extra traffic came from and whether it converts before putting budget behind it.","owner":"marcus-thorne","notify":["priya-nandakumar"],"explain":{"metric":"sessions","window":{"start":"2026-09-13","end":"2026-09-13","peak":"2026-09-13","baselineStart":"2026-08-16","baselineEnd":"2026-09-12","days":1},"baseline":5516.5,"spread":105,"observed":6217,"z":4.499816923936714,"pct":12.698268829874015,"formula":"Sessions 6,217 vs 28-day median 5,517 (MAD 105) → z = 4.5"}},{"id":"sig_043492388f","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"info","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"kiln-coffee","channel":"email","metric":"revenue","direction":"up","start":"2026-09-11","end":"2026-09-11","title":"Kiln Coffee · Email: Revenue 32% above baseline","suggestedAction":"Find the cause (promo, press, holiday). If it is repeatable, brief the team; if not, do not forecast from it.","owner":"marcus-thorne","notify":["hannah-brooks"],"explain":{"metric":"revenue","window":{"start":"2026-09-11","end":"2026-09-11","peak":"2026-09-11","baselineStart":"2026-08-14","baselineEnd":"2026-09-10","days":1},"baseline":1603.835,"spread":74.59499999999991,"observed":2112.32,"z":4.597740248441008,"pct":31.70432120511151,"formula":"Revenue $2,112 vs 28-day median $1,604 (MAD $75) → z = 4.6"}},{"id":"sig_0849074b56","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"info","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"ledgerly","channel":"all","metric":"revenue","direction":"up","start":"2026-09-11","end":"2026-09-11","title":"Ledgerly · All channels: Revenue 30% above baseline","suggestedAction":"Find the cause (promo, press, holiday). If it is repeatable, brief the team; if not, do not forecast from it.","owner":"ana-reyes","notify":["priya-nandakumar"],"explain":{"metric":"revenue","window":{"start":"2026-09-11","end":"2026-09-11","peak":"2026-09-11","baselineStart":"2026-08-14","baselineEnd":"2026-09-10","days":1},"baseline":2698.2400000000002,"spread":117.67500000000018,"observed":3504.5299999999997,"z":4.621501206359743,"pct":29.88207127609106,"formula":"Revenue $3,505 vs 28-day median $2,698 (MAD $118) → z = 4.6"}},{"id":"sig_0651c30a87","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"info","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"hearthline","channel":"email","metric":"sessions","direction":"up","start":"2026-09-08","end":"2026-09-08","title":"Hearthline · Email: Sessions 40% above baseline","suggestedAction":"Find where the extra traffic came from and whether it converts before putting budget behind it.","owner":"sam-chen","notify":["hannah-brooks"],"explain":{"metric":"sessions","window":{"start":"2026-09-08","end":"2026-09-08","peak":"2026-09-08","baselineStart":"2026-08-11","baselineEnd":"2026-09-07","days":1},"baseline":1015,"spread":58,"observed":1424,"z":4.7563227694125425,"pct":40.29556650246305,"formula":"Sessions 1,424 vs 28-day median 1,015 (MAD 58) → z = 4.8"}},{"id":"sig_069d84ca6d","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"info","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"mosse","channel":"all","metric":"sessions","direction":"up","start":"2026-09-07","end":"2026-09-07","title":"Mossé · All channels: Sessions 7% above baseline","suggestedAction":"Find where the extra traffic came from and whether it converts before putting budget behind it.","owner":"elena-lin","notify":["priya-nandakumar"],"explain":{"metric":"sessions","window":{"start":"2026-09-07","end":"2026-09-07","peak":"2026-09-07","baselineStart":"2026-08-10","baselineEnd":"2026-09-06","days":1},"baseline":5193,"spread":60,"observed":5551,"z":4.024461531543685,"pct":6.893895628730984,"formula":"Sessions 5,551 vs 28-day median 5,193 (MAD 60) → z = 4.0"}},{"id":"sig_00c15c5242","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"info","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"hearthline","channel":"paid_social","metric":"sessions","direction":"up","start":"2026-09-04","end":"2026-09-05","title":"Hearthline · Paid social: Sessions 25% above baseline for 2 days","suggestedAction":"Find where the extra traffic came from and whether it converts before putting budget behind it.","owner":"sam-chen","notify":["wei-zhang"],"explain":{"metric":"sessions","window":{"start":"2026-09-04","end":"2026-09-05","peak":"2026-09-04","baselineStart":"2026-08-07","baselineEnd":"2026-09-03","days":2},"baseline":1435.5,"spread":64.5,"observed":1789,"z":3.696627650774828,"pct":24.62556600487635,"formula":"Sessions 1,789 vs 28-day median 1,436 (MAD 65) → z = 3.7"}},{"id":"sig_1250a54654","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"info","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"ledgerly","channel":"email","metric":"revenue","direction":"up","start":"2026-08-31","end":"2026-09-01","title":"Ledgerly · Email: Revenue 24% above baseline for 2 days","suggestedAction":"Find the cause (promo, press, holiday). If it is repeatable, brief the team; if not, do not forecast from it.","owner":"ana-reyes","notify":["hannah-brooks"],"explain":{"metric":"revenue","window":{"start":"2026-08-31","end":"2026-09-01","peak":"2026-08-31","baselineStart":"2026-08-03","baselineEnd":"2026-08-30","days":2},"baseline":1442.005,"spread":63.47499999999991,"observed":1792.12,"z":3.7203518275564917,"pct":24.279735507158417,"formula":"Revenue $1,792 vs 28-day median $1,442 (MAD $63) → z = 3.7"}},{"id":"sig_1ee9623c32","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"info","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"ridgeway","channel":"paid_social","metric":"sessions","direction":"up","start":"2026-08-20","end":"2026-08-21","title":"Ridgeway · Paid social: Sessions 12% above baseline for 2 days","suggestedAction":"Find where the extra traffic came from and whether it converts before putting budget behind it.","owner":"dana-vance","notify":["wei-zhang"],"explain":{"metric":"sessions","window":{"start":"2026-08-20","end":"2026-08-21","peak":"2026-08-21","baselineStart":"2026-07-24","baselineEnd":"2026-08-20","days":2},"baseline":1450.5,"spread":39,"observed":1629,"z":3.0870923222198012,"pct":12.306101344364013,"formula":"Sessions 1,629 vs 28-day median 1,451 (MAD 39) → z = 3.1"}},{"id":"sig_1f23121242","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"info","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"ledgerly","channel":"email","metric":"sessions","direction":"up","start":"2026-08-20","end":"2026-08-20","title":"Ledgerly · Email: Sessions 21% above baseline","suggestedAction":"Find where the extra traffic came from and whether it converts before putting budget behind it.","owner":"ana-reyes","notify":["hannah-brooks"],"explain":{"metric":"sessions","window":{"start":"2026-08-20","end":"2026-08-20","peak":"2026-08-20","baselineStart":"2026-07-23","baselineEnd":"2026-08-19","days":1},"baseline":554,"spread":17,"observed":670,"z":4.602407535252061,"pct":20.938628158844764,"formula":"Sessions 670 vs 28-day median 554 (MAD 17) → z = 4.6"}},{"id":"sig_025dc1a309","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"info","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"ledgerly","channel":"email","metric":"sessions","direction":"up","start":"2026-08-18","end":"2026-08-18","title":"Ledgerly · Email: Sessions 22% above baseline","suggestedAction":"Find where the extra traffic came from and whether it converts before putting budget behind it.","owner":"ana-reyes","notify":["hannah-brooks"],"explain":{"metric":"sessions","window":{"start":"2026-08-18","end":"2026-08-18","peak":"2026-08-18","baselineStart":"2026-07-21","baselineEnd":"2026-08-17","days":1},"baseline":550,"spread":17,"observed":672,"z":4.840463097420272,"pct":22.181818181818183,"formula":"Sessions 672 vs 28-day median 550 (MAD 17) → z = 4.8"}},{"id":"sig_087b6ba22c","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"info","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"ledgerly","channel":"email","metric":"revenue","direction":"up","start":"2026-08-18","end":"2026-08-18","title":"Ledgerly · Email: Revenue 30% above baseline","suggestedAction":"Find the cause (promo, press, holiday). 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If it is repeatable, brief the team; if not, do not forecast from it.","owner":"dana-vance","notify":["wei-zhang"],"explain":{"metric":"revenue","window":{"start":"2025-09-01","end":"2025-09-01","peak":"2025-09-01","baselineStart":"2025-08-04","baselineEnd":"2025-08-31","days":1},"baseline":3420.6800000000003,"spread":168.9799999999998,"observed":4635.36,"z":4.8484461813293365,"pct":35.5098986166493,"formula":"Revenue $4,635 vs 28-day median $3,421 (MAD $169) → z = 4.8"}},{"id":"sig_091048215f","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"info","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"ridgeway","channel":"paid_search","metric":"conversion_rate","direction":"up","start":"2025-08-30","end":"2025-08-31","title":"Ridgeway · Paid search: Conversion rate 15% above baseline for 2 days","suggestedAction":"Look for a leaked promo code or a tracking change that inflates conversions before treating it as a win.","owner":"dana-vance","notify":["wei-zhang"],"explain":{"metric":"conversion_rate","window":{"start":"2025-08-30","end":"2025-08-31","peak":"2025-08-31","baselineStart":"2025-08-03","baselineEnd":"2025-08-30","days":2},"baseline":0.032264220777718663,"spread":0.0008700345306235924,"observed":0.03699897225077081,"z":3.670596975849815,"pct":14.674928942718859,"formula":"Conversion rate 3.70% vs 28-day median 3.23% (MAD 0.09%) → z = 3.7"}},{"id":"sig_08742a1dd6","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"info","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"kiln-coffee","channel":"paid_search","metric":"revenue","direction":"up","start":"2025-08-18","end":"2025-08-19","title":"Kiln Coffee · Paid search: Revenue 58% above baseline for 2 days","suggestedAction":"Find the cause (promo, press, holiday). If it is repeatable, brief the team; if not, do not forecast from it.","owner":"marcus-thorne","notify":["wei-zhang"],"explain":{"metric":"revenue","window":{"start":"2025-08-18","end":"2025-08-19","peak":"2025-08-18","baselineStart":"2025-07-21","baselineEnd":"2025-08-17","days":2},"baseline":1552.705,"spread":139.4849999999999,"observed":2449.45,"z":4.336281436045738,"pct":57.75372656106601,"formula":"Revenue $2,449 vs 28-day median $1,553 (MAD $139) → z = 4.3"}},{"id":"sig_10240614b5","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"info","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"kiln-coffee","channel":"all","metric":"revenue","direction":"up","start":"2025-08-18","end":"2025-08-19","title":"Kiln Coffee · All channels: Revenue 17% above baseline for 2 days","suggestedAction":"Find the cause (promo, press, holiday). If it is repeatable, brief the team; if not, do not forecast from it.","owner":"marcus-thorne","notify":["priya-nandakumar"],"explain":{"metric":"revenue","window":{"start":"2025-08-18","end":"2025-08-19","peak":"2025-08-19","baselineStart":"2025-07-22","baselineEnd":"2025-08-18","days":2},"baseline":5869.5650000000005,"spread":154.80499999999984,"observed":6838.54,"z":4.22185771560243,"pct":16.50846357438753,"formula":"Revenue $6,839 vs 28-day median $5,870 (MAD $155) → z = 4.2"}},{"id":"sig_05433cc736","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"info","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"mosse","channel":"organic","metric":"conversion_rate","direction":"up","start":"2025-08-17","end":"2025-08-17","title":"Mossé · Organic: Conversion rate 17% above baseline","suggestedAction":"Look for a leaked promo code or a tracking change that inflates conversions before treating it as a win.","owner":"elena-lin","notify":["kofi-mensah"],"explain":{"metric":"conversion_rate","window":{"start":"2025-08-17","end":"2025-08-17","peak":"2025-08-17","baselineStart":"2025-07-20","baselineEnd":"2025-08-16","days":1},"baseline":0.024375296890824842,"spread":0.0006484740964920466,"observed":0.028432732316227463,"z":4.220218997815622,"pct":16.645686178000517,"formula":"Conversion rate 2.84% vs 28-day median 2.44% (MAD 0.06%) → z = 4.2"}},{"id":"sig_050e5c9187","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"info","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"ledgerly","channel":"paid_search","metric":"sessions","direction":"up","start":"2025-08-16","end":"2025-08-16","title":"Ledgerly · Paid search: Sessions 26% above baseline","suggestedAction":"Find where the extra traffic came from and whether it converts before putting budget behind it.","owner":"ana-reyes","notify":["wei-zhang"],"explain":{"metric":"sessions","window":{"start":"2025-08-16","end":"2025-08-16","peak":"2025-08-16","baselineStart":"2025-07-19","baselineEnd":"2025-08-15","days":1},"baseline":316,"spread":13.5,"observed":398,"z":4.096906835339318,"pct":25.949367088607595,"formula":"Sessions 398 vs 28-day median 316 (MAD 14) → z = 4.1"}},{"id":"sig_08db75ce35","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"info","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"hearthline","channel":"all","metric":"conversion_rate","direction":"up","start":"2025-08-03","end":"2025-08-03","title":"Hearthline · All channels: Conversion rate 8% above baseline","suggestedAction":"Look for a leaked promo code or a tracking change that inflates conversions before treating it as a win.","owner":"sam-chen","notify":["priya-nandakumar"],"explain":{"metric":"conversion_rate","window":{"start":"2025-08-03","end":"2025-08-03","peak":"2025-08-03","baselineStart":"2025-07-06","baselineEnd":"2025-08-02","days":1},"baseline":0.026867770593062494,"spread":0.00037752471348859,"observed":0.029151483602290473,"z":4.080112551538469,"pct":8.499823241075518,"formula":"Conversion rate 2.92% vs 28-day median 2.69% (MAD 0.04%) → z = 4.1"}},{"id":"sig_0ac8cc369b","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"info","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"hearthline","channel":"paid_social","metric":"conversion_rate","direction":"up","start":"2025-08-03","end":"2025-08-03","title":"Hearthline · Paid social: Conversion rate 22% above baseline","suggestedAction":"Look for a leaked promo code or a tracking change that inflates conversions before treating it as a win.","owner":"sam-chen","notify":["wei-zhang"],"explain":{"metric":"conversion_rate","window":{"start":"2025-08-03","end":"2025-08-03","peak":"2025-08-03","baselineStart":"2025-07-06","baselineEnd":"2025-08-02","days":1},"baseline":0.01855265669145576,"spread":0.0005824398730437923,"observed":0.022710068130204392,"z":4.81446365291583,"pct":22.408712174700483,"formula":"Conversion rate 2.27% vs 28-day median 1.86% (MAD 0.06%) → z = 4.8"}},{"id":"sig_07c46db2ee","kind":"anomaly","rule":"anomaly.robust_z","severity":"info","coverageState":"needs_attention","brandId":"ledgerly","channel":"paid_search","metric":"revenue","direction":"up","start":"2025-07-13","end":"2025-07-13","title":"Ledgerly · Paid search: Revenue 28% above baseline","suggestedAction":"Find the cause (promo, press, holiday). 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